Grading Capper's Betting Trends in Search of College Football Odds Value

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, September 8, 2015 1:22 PM GMT

We explored during the month of August many trends and betting angles with the object of searching for PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST teams in the September 2015 CFB lines. Let's review the result.

In the month of August, I authored no fewer than 10 articles on this site which offered ways in which we should prepare for the upcoming 2015 College Football season.  Among the areas we explored were Returning Starter Theory, Experience Ratings, Overrated and Underrated Teams, 200 Club Offensive and Defensive Teams, Double Rushing Offensive and Defensive Teams, Defensive Dominators and Phony Favorites. The object was to search for PLAY ON and PLAY AGAINST teams in the September 2015 college football betting lines.  But, the caveat was that we needed to seek out value, noting that the linemaker was doing a similar type of homework. I cautioned that using any one of these lists exclusively could be harmful to your bankroll. Rather, as always, it is a blend of handicapping theory that allows us to ferret out the value in the betting line. Nonetheless, it can be helpful as we go forward to review the success or failure of the individual theories that were promulgated. The following is a recap of our homework in August.

 

4-5 ATS … play ON any team with 16 returning starters (RS) including QB and coach, if they had 4+ wins last season

1-3 ATS … play AGAINST any team with 10 or less RS

3-8 ATS … play ON teams with 11 or more projected senior starters and 75% returning lettermen

7-7 ATS … play AGAINST teams with 7 or less projected senior starters and less than 70% returning lettermen

4-3 ATS … play ON Joe Gavazzi’s list of Underrated Teams

3-0 ATS … play AGAINST Joe Gavazzi’s list of Overrated Teams

4-7 ATS … play ON teams who ran AND passed for 200 yards each last season

4-4 ATS … play AGAINST teams who allowed 200 or more both running AND passing last season

3-2 ATS … play ON any team who double rushed their opponent last year

3-3 ATS … play AGAINST any team who was double rushed last year

1-2 ATS … play any DEFENSIVE DOG, if they allowed 22 or less points, 350 or less yards and 140 or less RYPG LY

4-0 ATS … play AGAINST any Phony Favorite who allowed at least 35 PPG, 450 YPG and 200+ RYPG LY

 

That was a lot of information to assimilate and analyze for the 40 CFB games that were played in Week 1. Combined, results were mediocre with a combined record of 41-44 ATS.  

As I told you however, the secret was to mix the recipe together using the right proportion of each ingredient. From that perspective, results were rewarding on this site. There were 9 games offered with FREE analysis on this site last week from this bureau with a combined record of 6-3 ATS. Not bad for a week, when many of the results, from a pointspread perspective, were totally dichotomous to what you heard from the talking heads who rarely, if ever, predict that an underdog of any substance will win the game!

We saddle up again with great excitement, as we look forward to analyzing the Week 2 CFB card directly ahead.  We now have information to factor in to our analysis, along with a firm basis from the HOMEWORK of August. Expect more winning results in the weeks ahead.