Grab South Alabama as the College Football Pick Over Arkansas St.

Ross Benjamin

Monday, October 12, 2015 7:31 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 7:31 PM UTC

Our NCAAF handicapper analyzes Tuesday’s game between Arkansas State & South Alabama. Go inside to read this insightful betting preview article that concludes with his point spread pick.

Tuesday Sun Belt Clash on ESPN2
South Alabama (2-3) hosts Arkansas State (3-2) on Tuesday in a Sun Belt Conference game. The opening kickoff at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile Alabama is slated for 8:00 PM ET, and the game will be aired by ESPN2. Current (10/12) college football betting odds show Arkansas State as either a 5.5 to 6.0 point favorite. These teams have met in each of the last three years, and Arkansas State won all of those contests. The Red Wolves won and covered last year 45-14 as an 11.0 point home favorite.


Arkansas State 2015 Resume
The three losses by Arkansas State this season have come against the likes of USC, Missouri, and Toledo. Before you scoff at losing to Toledo, they’re currently the only ranked team out of that trio. However, both USC and Missouri have been ranked this year at one time. They were plagued in those three losses by a horrible -8 turnover differential. They were able to play Missouri tough in a 27-20 home loss. Unfortunately in the two losses at USC and Toledo they were outscored by a cumulative margin of 92-13. The Red Wolves two wins came over Missouri State 70-7 and in their Sun Belt Conference opener last week during a 49-35 home victory over Idaho.


What about South Alabama?
South Alabama opened their Sun Belt Conference slate with a 24-18 win as a 6.0 point underdog at Troy a week ago Saturday. In their two games against “Power Five Conference” opponents they weren’t competitive. They lost 48-9 at Nebraska and were trounced 63-13 by North Carolina State in Mobile. To their credit, they had a nice road upset win over San Diego State 34-27 in overtime.


Final Analysis
I always attempt to avoid laying points on the road in conference games. This appears to me as a much closer matchup than the sportsbooks seem to think. This isn’t going to be one of my college football picks this week. My professional opinion favors a small lean toward the home underdog.

College Football Picks: Play on South Alabama +6.0 (-105) at Heritage.

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