Grab Chalky FSU Odds as the College Football Pick Over Chattanooga

Darin Zank

Saturday, November 21, 2015 1:33 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 1:33 PM UTC

Florida State won't win a conference championship this season, or make the FBS playoffs, and now it's going with its backup quarterback. Can the 'Noles cover the college football odds?

Betting Odds
Much of this week's college football odds market held off for a couple-few days on lining this game, apparently trying to get a better read on this FBS/FCS match-up, When a line did come out Florida State was favored by 30.5 points, with an OVER/UNDER of 51.


The Situation
Chattanooga (8-2 SU, 0-0 ATS) lost its season opener to Jacksonville State back in September, then won seven games in a row. The Mocs then got upset at Mercer 17-14, but last week, in the game that really mattered, they beat The Citadel 31-23 to clinch their third straight Southern Conference championship.

So Chattanooga, ranked No. 9 in the FCS Coaches poll, is headed back to the FCS playoffs, after reaching the second round last season.

Offensively the Mocs love to run the ball out of their option attack, led by senior quarterback (and the coach's kid) Jacob Huesman and running back Derrick Craine, both of whom will probably top 1,000 yards on the season Saturday. But of course, we must take into consideration who they've played.

When Chattanooga schedules a game against an FBS opponent it doesn't back down; since 2008 the Mocs have played, and lost to, Oklahoma, Florida State, Alabama, Auburn, Nebraska, 'Bama again and last season, Tennessee. Most recently, UTC lost to the Vols last year 45-10, and to the then-No. 1 Tide two seasons ago 49-0.

Florida State (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is playing out the string now, after being eliminated from contention in the ACC a couple weeks ago in that 23-13 loss at Clemson. The Seminoles started this season 6-0, although the best win probably came over Louisville 41-21. They then got upset at Georgia Tech 22-16, beat Syracuse 45-21 but then lost to the Tigers, getting outgained by 150 yards.

Last week FSU rallied from a 17-7 first-quarter deficit to win at North Carolina State 34-17, pulling out the cover at -7. After a slow start the Seminoles swapped starting quarterback Everett Golson for backup Sean Maguire, then proceeded to score on four consecutive drives.

On the day Florida State outgained the Wolfpack 479-297, and outrushed them 196-79.

Maguire will get the start Saturday, his third of this season. He started the victory over the Orange and the loss to the Tigers two weeks ago. On the whole the junior has completed 64 percent of his throws this year, with six touchdown passes against two interceptions.

Find More ACC Betting Preview & Free Picks

Betting Trends
Florida State owns a 20-game home winning streak, going 11-8-1 ATS during that run.

Also, since Coach Fisher took over five seasons ago FSU is 6-0 against FCS opponents, winning those games by an average score of 56-6.

These teams last met back in 2008, when quarterback Christian Ponder led the Seminoles to a 46-7 victory in a game that wasn't lined.


Final Analysis
This game really doesn't mean anything to Chattanooga; sure, it would be nice to make a good showing against a big-time outfit like Florida State, but the Mocs are already headed to the FCS playoffs, and would probably like to stay healthy for that. Meanwhile, Florida State is out of the running for most things, but would like to salvage at least, perhaps, a berth in a New Year's Day bowl. And Maguire is playing to enhance his chances of becoming the starting quarterback next season. We'll take the Seminoles as the college football pick, and give the points.

College Football Pick: Florida State -30.5 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2823600, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,19,93,92,238,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here