Get the Points on Utah vs. UCLA for Week 6 NCAAF Picks

Darin Zank

Tuesday, September 30, 2014 12:35 PM GMT

Before making your NCAAF pick for UCLA vs. Utah, understand that the Bruins are coming off their best performance of the season, a big conference road win & an easy point spread cover.

The Betting Odds
As of early this week most books were listing UCLA at -13 over Utah on the pointspread, and at around -500 on the money line, with the Utes getting around +400 to win this game outright. Some handicappers consider this match to be one of the Week 6 College Football matches with inflated betting odds

 

The Situation
UCLA, the preseason favorite to win the Pac-12 South, opened this year with a 28-20 victory at Virginia, but they couldn't cover the large number on the point spread as an 18-point cross-country favorite. The Bruins then beat Memphis 42-35 but came nowhere close to covering at -22. They then won at Texas without starting QB Brett Hundley 20-17 but couldn't cover at -8. Last Thursday, though, UCLA, with Hundley back behind center, finally put on a performance we've been waiting for, spotting Arizona State an early 17-6 lead, then roaring back for a 62-27 victory, covering (for the first time this season) as three-point road chalk.

The Bruins outrushed the Sun Devils 225-139, got five total touchdowns from Hundley, and forced four ASU turnovers.

Playing with a heavy brace on is injured non-throwing elbow last week Hundley completed 18 of 23 passes, and ran for 72 yards.

Having last played last Thursday UCLA will play this game on a couple extra days off.

On the other side of this match-up, after back-to-back 5-7 seasons Utah is off to a 3-1 start to this season, and 3-1 ATS. The Utes opened with a 56-14 victory over Idaho State, sneaking out a cover as a 40-point favorite by tacking on a meaningless touchdown with two minutes to go. Utah then ripped Fresno State 59-27, easily covering at -13. The Utes then pulled an upset that looked better when it first happened than it does now, a 26-10 win at Michigan. But last week Utah suffered a letdown, coughing up an early 21-0 lead and losing at home to Washington State 28-27.

The Utes got outgained by the Cougars 495-357 and allowed Coach Leach's Wazzu offense to go 10-for-20 on third-down conversions.

So far this season Utah QB Travis Wilson, with 20 career starts under his belt, has completed only 58 percent of his throws, but owns a 7/0 TD/INT ratio.

 

Utes-Bruins Recent History
Since Utah joined the Pac-12 UCLA has taken two of three games from the Utes. Two years ago the Bruins beat Utah 21-14, but couldn't cover as nine-point favorites at the Rose Bowl. And last year UCLA won 34-27 in Salt Lake City, cashing in as a five-point favorite on the road.

The Bruins outrushed the Utes last year 186-99, held the ball for over 33 minutes and picked off Wilson six times. So they deserved to cover the spread.

 

Utes-Bruins Betting Trends
Utah is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 Pac-12 games.

UCLA is 4-1 ATS in its last five conference games.

The 'under' is 9-4 in the Utes' last 13 games.

The 'over' is 5-0 in the Bruins' last five home games.

The 'under' is 3-0 in the last three games in this series.

 

Utes-Bruins Free CFB Pick
UCLA running at full strength is a dangerous outfit, as Arizona State found out. But the Bruins also gave up 35 points to Memphis. Some bettors may play UCLA in this spot based upon what the Bruins did to the Sun Devils last week, and after watching Utah fall at home to Washington State. But this game also sets up for a “reversal of fortune” play; perhaps UCLA is favored by a bit too much? So we'll go with the Utes, getting 13.5 points at Pinnacle, for our free College Football pick.

Free College Football Pick: Utah +13.5 at Bodog Sportsbook

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":356106, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]