Friday's College Football Picks: Plus Money & Totals Play Are Tonight's Top Deals

Steven Suarez

Friday, November 27, 2015 1:06 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 27, 2015 1:06 PM UTC

We've got a big slate of games on the day after Thanksgiving, so let's dive into the analysis and try to beat the college football odds.

Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks 
Both teams were on the losing side last week, but this week is expected to go much better for Arkansas. The Razorbacks are favored by 14 points on the college football odds board, and it's a firm number, as we don't see anything different at any of the top sportsbooks right now. The total, meanwhile, is at 44.5 points.

It's not hard to figure out why Arkansas is such a heavy favorite. This team, aside from last week's incredible 51-50 loss to Mississippi State, has been on a roll, going 4-1 over their last five, and the offense is clicking on all cylinders. Brandon Allen (29:6 TD:INT ratio) has been a stud lately, and the likes of Alex Collins and Drew Morgon have been key contributors too.

As for the Tigers, they've been struggling a lot more. They've lost five of their previous six matchups, putting them at 5-6 overall to go with a brutal 1-6 mark in the SEC so far. Missouri actually has one of the nation's best defenses (ranking seventh by allowing just 15.1 points a game), but the offense under freshman QB Drew Lock has been futile. 

Despite an underwhelming season, there's still plenty to play for for these Tigers. Another win would make them bowl eligible, and they're going to want to show up with a competitive effort in what will be Gary Pinkel's last game in charge of the program. 

So while Missouri's offense has been lackluster at best, we think the strong defense will do just enough to keep the Tigers within distance of the cover. It's going to be tough for them to win outright, but we believe the 14 points are too many in this situation.

College Football Pick: Missouri +14 at 5Dimes

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#7 Baylor Bears vs. #19 TCU Horned Frogs 
You know there's most likely going to be fireworks when the Horned Frogs and Bears are on the field, but the circumstances appear to be a little bit different this time around.

Let's start the breakdown by checking out what TCU has been doing. The Horned Frogs have stumbled a bit of late, losing two of their last three (on the road versus Oklahoma and Oklahoma State) to fall to 9-2 and kill any chances of them making the final four. Trevone Boykin missed last week's loss to Sooners, and it was Bram Kohlhausen (5-of-11 for 122 yards and two touchdowns) that was much more effective of the two backups; Foster Sawyer was 8-of-18 for 107 yards with one touchdown and three picks. Both Boykin and leading wideout Josh Doctston are considered questionable, but we expect to see Kohlhausen get the start if Boykin can't go.

Baylor is dealing with injury problems at quarterback too. The Bears lost Seth Russell to a season-ending injury and then Jarrett Stidham broke a bone in his ankle and was also ruled out. That means third-stringer Chris Johnson will move into the starting role, and his performance is obviously going to be critical to Baylor's chances.

So, where should we go with our college football picks? We get that there will be a ton of playmaking ability on that field this weekend, but with so much uncertainty surrounding the most important position on both sides of the equation, we have a feeling the final score may end up lower than some may think. Baylor down to its third-string quarterback, while there's a chance Boykin could miss out for TCU. 

It's never easy fading these two prolific offenses, but our inkling is that we'll see the UNDER cash in this spot. We'd naturally be more hesitant to go this route if Boykin and/or Doctston are active come kickoff.

College Football Pick: UNDER 78.5 at Pinnacle

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