Friday Night Steam: Underdogs FAU, Colorado State, Utah State Get the Early Money

Wisconsin Badgers

Kevin Stott

Thursday, August 31, 2017 8:52 PM GMT

Thursday, Aug. 31, 2017 8:52 PM GMT

The 2017 College Football season begins its first full week of play this weekend and three of the six major games on Friday night have already seen solid point spread moves downward on three favorites.

Friday, September 1, 2017Navy at Florida Atlantic — Open: Navy -14½ Current Low: Navy -9 

Movement Analysis: A steady stream of money and a 5½-point (spread) move in sportsbooks so far (Wednesday) on underdogs and hosts Florida Atlantic and new HC Lane Kiffin over Navy in his first game on the sidelines for the Owls on Friday (ESPNU, WatchESPN). And it makes sense for those who got there early, taking RB Devin Singletary and FAU and the 14½ points at Open with the Owls playing at Home in FAU Stadium (Grass) in Boca Raton on Saturday night (ESPNU, 8 pm ET) and with the eager Sunshine State crowd looking for the upset. Besides these off-the-gridiron realities heading in, FAU  also look to have a stronger Passing attack with aggressive OC Kendal Briles and the Owls return 12 of their top 13 pass catchers from last year and added FSU-transfer De’Andre Johnson battling Jason Driskel for the starting spot.

FAU-backers at the NCAA College Football betting windows may also be wise in knowing how bad AAC-West member Navy (9-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) was at Pass Defense last season (254 ypg) and the points may also be valuable here fading the Midshipmen in a perceived shorter game in possibly rainy and sloppy conditions (Thunderstorms) in the forecast for Boca Raton, with Navy—whose OC Ivin Jasper has been with his 14-year-old son Jasper in a hospital, awaiting a heart transplant but was expected to travel with QB Zach Abey (20/35, TD, 4 INTs) and the Navy (#1 in 3rd-Down Conversion in 2016) team according to HC Ken Niumatalolo—who rush the pigskin almost every play from scrimmage, eating up game clock when they have possession. The big move makes this “stay away” material now with those holding FAU +14½, +14, +13½ and 13 maybe getting “the best of it.” FAU is 11-13 ATS as a Home Underdog L10 years while Navy is 10-11 ATS as an Away Favorite.

 

Colorado State vs. Colorado — Open: COL -8½  Current Low: COL -4

Movement Analysis: More underdog Wiseguy, and likely even a little late Public, action and a big 4½-point spread move to date on upstart Colorado State  on Saturday in this annual Rocky Mountain Showdown from the neutral Sports Authority Field in Denver—home of the NFL’s Broncos—in which the winner takes home the Centennial Cup. Rams backers may be pumped that CSU already has a game under its belt—CSU won 58-27 at Home over Oregon State last Saturday (CSU -3, 61)—and that the Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS L5 in this series  and that the Rams (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS in 2017) are 14-3 ATS L17 after scoring 40+ points. This is a game QB Nick Stevens, WR Michael Gallup (11 receptions, 134 yards, 12.,2 ypc, pictured below against Oregon State last weekend) and the underdog Rams (30-18-1 ATS L4 Years) could possibly win outright over QB Steven Montez and Pac-12 member and favorite Colorado (16-7 SU L23 Series meetings), despite last season’s big Buffaloes blowout.

According to our trusted boys over a Covers.com, the Trends show MWC-member CSU is 11-3-1 its L14 September games while the Under is 8-1 the L9 meetings of this 89th Rocky Mountain Showdown. The feeling here is that Colorado State but taking the 4 points when there were 8½’s, 8’s, 7½’s, 7’s, 6½’s, 6’s, 5½’s and 5’s in the marketplace seems a bit futile now. Colorado State +8½ sounds sharp, but that number has gone the way of the pterodactyl, Space Food Sticks, Wang Chung, the Crayola crayon color "Raw Umber" and Pluto as a recognized planet.

 

Utah State at Wisconsin, Open: WIS -31½ Current Low: WIS -27

Movement Analysis: A 4½-point move on another underdog Utah State  at host Wisconsin in this Non-Conference opener for both on Friday night (ESPN, 9 pm ET). Why? Because Wiseguys like holding more than the high-scoring NCAAF key numbers of 27 and 28, meaning Sharp money has backed visitors Utah State at +31½ all the way down to its current low of 27 with the underdogs, meaning Middles are possible for those who bet early and have USU +31½ and who can now lay the 27 points with the Badgers and win both bets should Wisconsin win by 28, 29, 30 or 31 points in Madison on Saturday. In a similar lined (WIS -27½) game against Purdue in West Lafayette last season, the Badgers won 49-20, covering their 7th spread in 8 games. Potential later (Friday-Saturday) and perceived Square (Public) money may now dribble in on the hosts, driving it up to around 28 (again) in some sportsbooks.

QB Alex Hornibrook, WR Jazz Peavy, NFL prospect and TE Troy Fumagalli and Wisconsin are 39-10 SU Non-Conference the L10 years and 25-20-2 ATS in this spot while QB Kent Myers (10 TDs, 8 INTs in 2016), RB Tonny Lindsey (798 Rushing yards, 6 TDs, 5.2 ypc) and Utah State are 19-30 in Non-Conference games and 27-21 ATS the L10 seasons with the little Aggies more often travelling to Power 5 Conference Sites for the nice paydays omnipresent in that decade-long mathematical mix. Backing the Badgers and laying the 14½ (everywhere) in the First Half marketplace seems the most logical approach here with #9 Wisconsin getting out to 30-10 (Akron, 2016) and 37-0 (Miami-Ohio, 2015) Halftime leads the L2 Non-Conference cupcake Home openers in Madtown.

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