Friday Night Lights: 2 Clashes Provide Value in Totals & Odds Markets

Wednesday, October 3, 2018 1:09 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 3, 2018 1:09 PM UTC

A couple of Friday night college football games are broken down by our expert handicapper, Mark Lathrop. He finds value in both matchups and places his wagers early to beat the line moves.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Mark's 2018 NCAAF Record: 16-11, +8.42u<br />*Note: Record includes official Twitter selections (@mlathrop3)</strong></em></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="" title="Game Odds">Middle Tennessee (2-2 SU) at Marshall (3-1 SU)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Over 52</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448968, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,999991,169,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>The Marshall Thundering Herd just beat Western Kentucky 20-17 in an ugly game in which they turned the ball over 4 times. What is lost to the general public in that win is that it was the first time Marshall had won at Western Kentucky in more than 67 years. In spite of that trend, Marshall was the favorite on the <a href="" title="Live NCAAF Odds">NCAAF odds board</a> and barely fell short of the spread. Still, to get that monkey off of your back has to feel good for Marshall’s fan base. With that win, the Herd go to 3-1 SU on the season – their only loss being to N.C. State.</p><p>Middle Tennessee State is coming off a close 25-24 win against Florida Atlantic as a 3-point home underdog. They shouldn’t have been, with Florida Atlantic not winning at their field since 2004. There are reasons for these things, obviously. Florida Atlantic did not put pressure on Blue Raiders star QB Brent Stockstill, and that could continue on Friday night with Marshall allowing 261.2 yards per game through the air. With a total set at 52, and two very capable quarterbacks playing, I’ll take a shot at the "over" with one of my <a href="" title="Free NCAAF Picks">NCAAF picks</a>.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Huge game on Friday night for &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;@HerdFB&lt;/a&gt;. Get out and support these young men. 3-1 and a ton to play for on Friday. &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#HerdFamily&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Mike Hamrick (@TheHerdAD) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;October 1, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="" title="Game Odds">Utah State (3-1 SU) at BYU (3-2 SU)</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Friday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Utah State +3</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">Bovada</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448390, "sportsbooksIds":[999996,238,1275,169,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>BYU is 10-1 at home against Utah State since 1992, which partially explains why they opened as slight favorites against the Aggies on the <a href="" title="Live NCAAF Odds">NCAAF odds board</a>. The other obvious reason is that they have a running back named Squally Canada. That’s one of the best names I’ve seen in quite some time! Unfortunately, Canada is questionable for the game after averaging 4.9 yards per attempt on the season.</p><p>These teams have very similar defensive statistics and give up an average of 357 yards per game. Yes, they are really that similar statistically. The huge difference on paper is on offense where Utah State has put up 472 yards per game on offense and the Cougars just 295 yards per game. Those performance trends have followed to the betting markets, as Utah State is 4-0 cashing "overs" and BYU 5-0 cashing "unders." It seems like a tossup here, so with another <a href="" title="Free NCAAF Picks">NCAAF pick</a> I will take the points where I can get them, and finding Utah State +3 is key here.</p>
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