Fresno State vs. Hawaii: Go With the Home Team -4 as the College Football Pick

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, November 12, 2015 3:56 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015 3:56 PM UTC

Our college football analyst provides us with a betting preview article on the Saturday night game between Fresno State and Hawaii. Go inside for our free college football pick.

Bulldogs leave the Mainland to take on Hawaii
Hawaii will host Fresno State on Saturday night in a Mountain West Conference game. The opening kickoff at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu is slated for 11:00 PM ET. Current (11/11) college football odds  lists Hawaii as a 4 point favorite, and the posted total is 56. Fresno State has won the last four meetings between these teams, and three of those contests were decided by 7 points or less.

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Two Struggling Teams
These teams have gone a combined 4-15 this season, and that includes 2-15 against FBS opponents. Fresno State is at a -19.4 point per game differential this season, and Hawaii comes in at -18.9. Neither team has been able to stop the run with any type of regularity. Fresno State has allowed an average of 245 yards rushing per game, and Hawaii gives up 261 per contest. Both teams are averaging less than 300 yards of total offense per game.

Hawaii won two of their first three games, and since then dropped seven games in a row. They were also a dismal 1-6 ATS in those last seven games. The Rainbow Warriors have scored 21 points or less in their seven or their last nine games, and that includes being held scoreless on three separate occasions. This is a team that’s an awful -17 in turnover differential, and has committed a whopping 27 turnovers in ten games.

Fresno State has lost seven of their previous eight, and their only win in at sequence came at home in a narrow 31-28 victory over UNLV. Keep in mind, that’s a UNLV football program that’s gone an abysmal 7-60 in their last 67 road games, and that includes 21-46 ATS (31.3%). Despite that road futility, UNLV closed as a 6.0 point road favorite in their loss to Fresno State, and that further exemplifies a lack of respect for the Bulldogs from a sportsbook perspective.


Final Thoughts and Pick
It just dawned on me, writing about each team’s struggles this season was more reminiscent of an obituary rather than a betting preview. I’ll go out on a limb and say this game will garner the least amount of attention at the sportsbooks this week. The only reason we may see a spike in dollars wagered on this contest close to game time, has more to do with an 11:00 PM ET kickoff than anything else. It’s an opportunity for some undisciplined bettors to chase the money they’re down for the day, or it’s simply the only game left on the Saturday board to wager on.

My best advice pertaining to this game is to steer clear of it. The biggest issue when opting to wager on a game such as this is pretty definitive. It requires asking a bad team to do good things for you regardless of the chosen side. In an otherwise relatively even matchup, I can’t ignore the fact that Fresno State is 0-4 SU&ATS on the road, and lost by an average of 30.0 points per game. Contrarily, Hawaii’s only two wins have come at home. My college football picks this week won’t include this game, but if you put the proverbial gun to my head, then I would have a microscopic lean toward the small home favorite.

College Football Pick: Hawaii -4 at Bookmaker

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