Free Picks: What Is Weather's Impact On College Football Totals?

Alabama Team

Doug Upstone

Saturday, August 13, 2016 10:06 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 13, 2016 10:06 PM UTC

Over the years, there have been all kinds of articles of this ilk and when there is rain or cold weather the totals typically are lowered and college football bettors play UNDER's.

Anyone even halfway interested in making winning college football picks knows and understands this. Instead, let's be more specific about different weather conditions and how to view possible outcomes on totals.


How Heat and Humidity Play a Factor
In the South, particularly in September and at least halfway through October, heat and humidity are a big issue. The teams playing in those conditions have less of a problem because they practice in it every day and their bodies have adjusted. If they have a non-conference conflict with an opponent from the Midwest, East or Northwest, especially in late September, they would have an edge later in a game, since the opposing cannot recreate that atmosphere, being most likely a month removed from those kinds of temperatures.

This is not something most oddsmakers from sportsbooks will build into a total, but it would be at the forefront in setting side action.

Here is a very specific instance where the weather in the south can be a factor and the sports bettor can take advantage of on totals.

Take a team like Alabama last year with a strong running game and having an explosive element where a running back can go the distance. As most know, it takes more effort to play defense than offense and if a team lacks depth in the defensive line, they are usually going to wear down anyway versus a stronger foe. Now add in the temperatures and humidity taking a physical and mental toll and say Alabama is holding a 28-13 lead in the fourth quarter with a total of 53. The fresher Crimson Tide's offense starts to roll and they score two quick touchdowns due to missed tackles caused by fatigue and that OVER bet made is a winner.

Watch for stellar and game-changing run game against an opponent who is weaker against the run and lacks depth, setting up potential OVER plays, particularly totals of 55 or less.


Wind Matters More Than Cold
Because you will find college football odds during the regular season only until the first weekend in December, it is rare to have really cold weather games, except the occasional cold snap that might occur in the Northeast or upper Midwest. However, that has more to do with temperature drops than really cold temps, because anyone who ever played football understands 25 to 30 degrees while cold, is not that bad and you sweat far less. It is more the announcers whining about chill temperatures in open booths.

What affects totals more is windy conditions. Most collegiate teams have at least an adequate passing offenses in today's modern game. With most football fields running east and west, if the wind is blowing in normal fashion (west to east), this can limit the ability to push the passing game down the field for at least half the time of a team's possessions, based on what quarter they have or do not have the wind. This could lead to shorter throws or less accurate attempts and really curtail offense.

Of even greater importance for totals players are not only knowing wind speed but the direction, because if you have a crosswind blowing, that is four quarters of potentially very ugly passes from quarterbacks. What we are seeking here is totals in the upper 50's or higher and looking to make UNDER bets if the conditions are ripe.


Don't forget to read our article on college football revenge games

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