Free NCAA Football Picks - Week 6 Games With Biggest Line Moves

Bowling Green Falcons player

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 8:08 PM GMT

Matthew Jordan last week was 3-0 on his predictions, he now takes a look at the biggest line movements in the College Football Odds board and finds some profitable angles that could make you a lot of money this Saturday.

 

A perfect 3-0 ATS on my recommendations on the largest spread moves in Week 5, hitting on Clemson (+2) over Louisville, Notre Dame (-10) vs. Syracuse and UCLA (-13.5) vs. Arizona. Here are the three top Week 6  line moves at SBR's best sportsbooks.

 

Notre Dame vs NC State -2.5

The Irish opened as much as 2-point favorites. Keep in mind that this game could be switched to another day or moved to perhaps South Bend because of Hurricane Matthew's threat to the southeastern United States. North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory issued a state of emergency for most North Carolina counties, including Wake County where Carter-Finley Stadium is located. I'm quite surprised that the Wolfpack are favored. The Irish paid off for me last week with their 50-33 victory over another ACC team, Syracuse, at MetLife Stadium outside New York City. DeShone Kizer threw for three touchdowns and a career-high 471 yards. That's the good news. The bad is Notre Dame's defense wasn't much improved in its first game since Coach Brian Kelly replaced defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder with defensive analyst Greg Hudson. He made some minor tweaks, but the Orange still had nearly 500 yards of offense. This will be Notre Dame's first true road game since allowing 50 points in the Week 1 double-overtime loss at Texas. 

NC State has taken coach Dave Doeren off the hot seat a bit with a 3-1 start, but the Wolfpack haven't played anyone yet. Boy does that change now with games upcoming vs. No. 3 Clemson, No. 7 Louisville, No. 23 Florida State, No. 10 Miami and No. 17 North Carolina. Notre Dame and NC State have played once, on New Year's Day in 2003. One of NC State's best defensive players, starting strong safety Shawn Boone, will miss the first half after he was called for targeting in the second half of the Wake Forest win last week.

NCAAF Free Pick: Couldn't love the Irish more here. They are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 vs. teams with a winning record. NC State is 1-5 ATS in its past six after a win.
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Maryland vs Penn State +2

This opened with the Nittany Lions as 2-point favorites. A lot of Maryland fans were upset the school missed out on some big-name coaches this offseason and settled for Michigan defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, but that hiring looks very good so far with the Terps at 4-0. But take that with a grain of salt as the wins are over Howard, Florida International, Central Florida (a game Maryland nearly lost) and Purdue. That's a cupcake schedule. FIU already has fired its coach this season and Purdue's head coach won't be there next year. One thing Maryland is doing much better under Durkin is winning the turnover battle. Last year Maryland was minus-18 in turnover margin, which was 125th nationally. This year, it's plus-4, a jump of 22 that's the largest among any school in the nation from 2015. 

Penn State coach James Franklin is on the hot seat and that's only going to get warmer with a home loss here against an old/new rival. The Lions opened Big Ten play by betting slaughtered at Michigan but beat a solid Minnesota team 29-26 in OT last week in Happy Valley. Saquon Barkley, one of the Big Ten's top running backs, won it on a 25-yard TD run. Both meetings between Maryland and Penn State since the Terps joined the Big Ten have been decided by one point.

NCAAF Free Pick: PSU has won nine of its past 10 at home and will win here. Maryland is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 after a win.
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Bowling Green vs Ohio -11.5

The Bobcats opened at -14.5 in the college football odds board. Last week, Bowling Green lost only 28-25 to Eastern Michigan in its Mid-American Conference opener. That was a sign of progress because the Falcons lost 77-10 to Ohio State, 77-3 to Memphis and 41-21 to Middle Tennessee earlier in the season. Coach Mike Jinks made a change at quarterback vs. EMU, giving redshirt freshman James Morgan his first start. He finished 23 of 46 passing for 250 yards with a touchdown and an interception. BGSU moved the ball well but couldn't stop  Eastern. Bowling Green is last in the MAC in allowing 49.8 points a game. 

Ohio opened MAC play with a 17-7 win over Miami of Ohio in the 93rd meeting of the Battle of the Bricks. It was an ugly offensive game as Ohio had just 197 yards and Miami 238. The difference was four turnovers by the RedHawks. Three Ohio running backs are questionable for this game: Papi White, Dorian Brown and Vinny Emanuele. The Bobcats have a few defenders questionable as well. Bowling Green has won four straight vs. Ohio and rolled last year 62-24, but those Falcons teams were vastly better than this one.

NCAA Free Pick: Go with Bowling Green as it should stay within 10. The Falcons are 14-3 ATS in the past 17 meetings.
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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