Free NCAA Football Picks - UNLV -10 To Run Over Fresno St.

UNLV Rebels Players storm the field

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 30, 2016 7:01 PM GMT

Guided by recent trends our betting expert provides his college football pick. Fresno State has had a terrible start, while The Rebels have had an interesting angle that gives them an edge on Saturday night.

 MWC Clash in Sin City

Fresno State (1-3) will take on UNLV (1-3) on Saturday night in what will be the Mountain West Conference opening game for both teams. The kickoff from Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada is slated for 10:30 PM ET. The game will be televised by the CBS Sports Network. Both teams have lost 3 straight games, and each has seen their only win come against a FCS opponent. Fresno State defeated UNLV 31-28 last season, and did so as a 6.0-point home underdog.

 

College Football Week 5 Odds: Fresno State vs. UNLV

At the time of this writing, college football betting odds at 5Dimes has UNLV as a 10.0-point favorite. 5Dimes has been graded as one the best sportsbooks, and that’s according to a highly credible online sports betting sites rating guide.

 

UNLV Running Game Provides Sizable Edge

Through their first 4 games of the season, UNLV has averaged 250 yards of rushing offense per game. The Rebels are doing so at a robust clip of 6.0 yards per attempt. Despite a 33-30 upset loss to Idaho last Saturday, UNLV gained a massive 364 yards on the ground.

Conversely, Fresno State’s defense has been horrible against the run. The Bulldogs are allowing 262 yards rushing per game, and their opponents have averaged 5.1 yards per carry. During their previous 2 games, Fresno State gave up 318 yards rushing to Toledo, and 344 against Tulsa.

 

Compelling Recent Team Trends

Since the start of last season, Fresno State has gone a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 8.0 or more. The Bulldogs lost those contests by a whopping 38.0 points per game.

You may be surprised to know, UNLV is 4-0 SU&ATS in their preceding 4 games as a home favorite of 2.0 to 13.0, and when followed by 2 or more losses in a row. The Rebels won those contests by an average of 32.5 points per game.

 

Final Take and Pick

It would be hard to imagine UNLV not having a very productive rushing attack against a porous Fresno State defense. Despite their current 3-game losing streak, I still believe UNLV will be one of the most improved Mountain West Conference teams. Contrarily, Fresno State will continue on its futile downward slide. I’ll have a very small lean on the home favorite in this contest, and one of my college football week 5 predictions will be indicative of such.

 

Free College Football Pick: UNLV -10.0
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3027858, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,93,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/ucnBLCNJ9Y4", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]