Free NCAA Football Picks - TCU Horned Frogs vs West Virginia Mountaineers

TCU Horned Frogs HC and players

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 20, 2016 4:56 PM GMT

The public will have a difficult time fading a WVU team, who stormed back two weeks ago to defeat Kansas St. on this field (17-16). Joe Gavazzi is calling their bluff and giving an interesting College Football Pick.

 TCU vs West Virginia (-6) 3:30 ET

Dotting the landscape of the CFB schedule each week are records of series dominators or historical situations, which strongly indicate that one team will continue to perform beyond expectations in their role today. In today’s game, we feature a situation favoring TCU which has cashed a winning ticket 13 consecutive times. It is joined by a situational play that was the subject of last week’s Article, which offers solid value with this selection.

The TCU Horned Frogs travel to WVU for this 3:30 ET kick of a Big 12 Conference game, as televised by ESPN2. The Horned Frogs are an underperforming 4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS. The host Mountaineers, following their 48-17 destruction of a Texas Tech team in W. Texas Hill country, returns to Morgantown with a perfect 5-0 SU slate. In the last 4 seasons that these teams have each been part of the Big 12, TCU has gone 3-1 SU, including a 40-10 victory last season, in which they outgained WVU 616-327 as 12 point home favorite. Now, they are nearly a TD underdog.  Have things changed that much? I don’t think so!  

Yet, the linemaker has made this adjustment in a game where TCU may well have been the favorite at the start of the year, based on the divergent pointspread marks and AFP (away from the pointspread) records of each of these teams. With a 1-5 ATS mark, TCU has failed to cover the number by a net (-54) points. This includes their last outing at Kansas, where they won the game but failed to cover the number by 28 points. WVU, conversely, in going 3-2 ATS has a net (+37) AFP, including covering the number by 29 points last week. That net (-91) AFP has worked its magic in providing us great value in this spot. Last week, games in which the net AFP differential was (-50) or more, resulted in a 7-2 ATS mark. In addition, in last week’s Article, which provided a pointspread winner with Pitt at Virginia, I noted that winning teams, who were 3 or more games below .500 ATS, were a solid pointspread proposition, especially against foes that have come off a victory.

Note that WVU HC Holgorsen is just 10-17 ATS as a home favorite.

More was expected of this TCU team who, although returning just 12 starters, was getting back many injured players from last year. Remember, this is a team that was 23-3 SU L2Y, while averaging a combined 44 PPG on 548 YPG. But, the defense has left them down, allowing more than 400 yards on 4 separate occasions. Key to this pointspread victory, however, is not only the great value in this pointspread, but also the fact that TCU 16th year HC Patterson is on a 5-1 ATS run as underdog L2+Y and perhaps most importantly, HAS COVERED 13 CONSECUTIVE GAMES in the regular season when his team is playing with rest, allowing them to extra time to prepare. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on TCU this afternoon.

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Free College Football Pick: TCU +6Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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