Free NCAA Football Picks - How To Profit From Week 5 Biggest Line Movements

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 28, 2016 11:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 28, 2016 11:47 PM UTC

 After hitting two out of three of his ATS predictions last week, our capper looks into the biggest line movements in Week 5.  He has a good feeling that he'll take advantage of those numbers to keep that winning streak alive while cashing his top NCAA Football Picks.


No. 3 Louisville vs No. 5 Clemson +2
I must say I'm pretty shocked to find the ACC Game of the Year on this list of biggest  line moves as Clemson had opened as a 3-point favorite at some of SBR's best-ranked sportsbooks.  Louisville is taking a huge lean as of this moment as clearly, bettors are very impressed still by the Cardinals' destruction of then-No. 2 Florida State a couple of weeks ago. U of L quarterback Lamar Jackson could all but clinch the Heisman Trophy with another huge game. He has been responsible for an obscene 25 touchdowns this season, more than most other FBS schools have scored overall. The Tigers don't know much about him because Jackson barely played last year when Clemson beat Louisville 20-17. Kyle Bollin was the Cards' starting QB then. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson was the preseason Heisman favorite but hasn't been his spectacular self yet. The Tigers' defense will be the best that Jackson will see all regular season. Clemson ranks fifth in total defense, allowing 219 yards per game, and fifth in scoring, giving up 11 points per game. Of course, the Tigers haven't seen an offense like Louisville's yet. 

The biggest fans of this game? Members of the University of Houston football team. That's because if the Cards win they and the Cougars likely will be unbeaten when they play Nov. 17 in Houston. A Cougars win there should be more than enough to get them into the College Football Playoff. The biggest Clemson fans Saturday? Florida State as it still is yet to play the Tigers. We could have a three-way tie atop the ACC Atlantic at the end of the season if Clemson does win here and then loses at FSU. In that scenario, the champion would be decided by a statistical service and its rankings.

The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their past five at home, making them a safe college football pick. Louisville is 1-5 ATS in its past six October games.

Free College Football Pick: Clemson. 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Syracuse Vs. Notre Dame -10
The Irish opened at -13 across the odds board for this neutral-site game at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Irish coach Brian Kelly made news on Sunday when he fired defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder. You don't wish a firing for anyone, but he needed to go. Notre Dame is one of the biggest disappointments in the country at 1-3 and has allowed 149 points, the school's most through the first four games ever. Duke put up 38 in last Saturday's stunning upset in South Bend and that Duke offense wasn't exactly scoring points like Louisville was heading in. Notre Dame ranks 103rd nationally in total defense, 101st in scoring defense, 104th in yards per play, 96th in rushing defense and 87th in passing defense. The Irish ranked 45th in total defense in 2015 and 73rd in 2014. Kelly promoted defensive analyst Greg Hudson to the post, while adding that every job on the team is up for grabs -- including his own. I do think Kelly is in a bit of trouble right now. 

A big question here is whether Syracuse starting QB Eric Dungey will play. New coach Dino Babers is staying quiet, but Dungey could be seen shaking his hand often during last week's 31-24 win over UConn. Dungey ranks eighth in the country in passing yards per game (341.8) and has thrown nine touchdowns. Junior Zack Mahoney would be the likely replacement, and he played some last year.

The Irish are 5-2 ATS in their past seven after an ATS loss.


NCAAF Free Pick: Notre Dame. The Irish are 5-2 ATS in their past seven after an ATS loss.
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Arizona vs UCLA -13.5 
The Bruins opened at -10.5. Arizona was the Pac-12 South champion two years ago and UCLA was the preseason favorite to win the division this year. But the loser of Saturday's game at the Rose Bowl likely has no shot at the Pac-12 Championship Game as it will be the second conference loss already for the Cats or Bruins. Arizona has a bunch of players questionable for this game, led by quarterback Anu Solomon and top tailback Nick Wilson. Solomon, who won a close battle for the starting job with Brandon Dawkins in camp, was hurt in the opener and hasn't played since. Solomon probably has lost his job at this point. Wilson was hurt early in Week 3 and didn't play in last week's overtime home loss to Washington. He still hasn't been ruled out. The Cats could use him as they were down to their fourth-string tailback by the end of last week's game because good-looking freshman J.J. Taylor broke his ankle in it. UCLA is just a couple of plays from being unbeaten, losing Week 1 in OT at Texas A&M and then in the final minute last week to an excellent Stanford team. Highly touted QB Josh Rosen hasn't gotten going yet with four picks to  just five TD passes as the Bruins rank eighth in the Pac-12 in pass efficiency.

The Bruins have won four straight in the series and rolled last year in Tucson.  The favorite is 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. 


NCAAF Free Pick: UCLA. 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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