Free NCAA Football Picks - Clemson Tigers vs Florida St. - Week 9

Florida State Seminoles Players

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 4:58 PM GMT

Every week, Joe Gavazzi picks a small underdog to pull an upset, and this selection is 6-1 ATS with 5 straight victories. For week 9 he turns his attention to the NCAAF Odds for Clemson-Florida St. Read on for his pick. 

 Clemson -4 vs Florida St. 8:00 ET ABC TV

Each week of the College Football season, I select a PUP OF THE WEEK.  It is a team, who is an underdog of 7 or less points, which I believe can win the contest outright. The record for this selection for the season is 6-1 ATS, including 5 straight victories after Navy’s victory over Memphis last week.  

With each of these teams being favored by an extra week to prepare, Clemson travels to Florida St. for the 8:00 ET primetime spot on ABC TV. In the last 2 weeks, we have seen the power of the home field in college football, when Ohio St. first traveled to Wisconsin for a 30-23 OT victory 2 weeks ago, then traveled to Penn St. last weekend, where the overwhelming energy of 110,000 whiteout fans finally wore them down in the 4th quarter. The result was a blocked FG returned for a TD by Penn St. in their 24-21 victory. Expect Clemson to receive much the same treatment tonight, when they travel to Tallahassee and Doak Campbell Stadium for this Marquee Matchup.   

After last year’s 23-13 loss at Clemson on November 7th, in which they were outgained 512-365, you can be sure that underachieving Florida St. will be eager for this revenge meeting. In the series, Florida St. is 4-3 SU, but just 1-6 ATS most recently. Yet, the Seminoles qualify for one of my favorite 2nd half situations in the CFB season. It is the concept of RESTED HOMER, OFF A WIN, WITH REVENGE. There are situations such as this one,  that qualify under 80+% ATS situational plays. Florida St. clearly has much to prove to its backers and fans. 

At the start of the season, the Seminoles were ranked as a Top 5 team with 17 projected starters returning. There have been high points in the season, such as storming back in Opening Week to defeat Ole Miss. There was also a 55-35 bounce back win against a new, in-state rival (S. Florida). There was also a road win at rival, Miami, FL (20-19) when they outgained the Hurricanes 407-276. There have, however, been disappointments as well. Notably the embarrassing 63-20 loss at Louisville on September 17th in which they were outgained 530-284! There was also a brutal last second home loss to N. Carolina October 1st (37-35). With those 2 conference losses, it may appear that the national goals have gone by the boards of the Sems. But, I assure you that in this Marquee Matchup situation that Florida St. will play with full emotion.  

That figures to be enough to win this game, if not take it to the final gun. Despite the 7-0 SU-Clemson record, the Tigers have also appeared to underachieve this season. To their credit, however, they are the only team who has defeated Louisville this year by a score of 42-36 in Death Valley. Under 8th year HC Dabo Sweeney, the Tigers ascended to the heights of the National Title game last season. But, that success, along with a 7-0 SU start, is enough to put incredible pressure on this undefeated road favorite, who is just 4-7 ATS in this role of late. No surprise to this bureau if Florida St. pulls the upset tonight. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Florida St. tonight.

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Free College Football Pick: Florida St. +4.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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