Free NCAA Football Picks Against The Spread - Louisville vs. Marshall

Marshall Herd Taking The Field

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, September 22, 2016 8:52 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 22, 2016 8:52 PM UTC

The undefeated Louisville Cardinals travel to Huntington, West Virginia home of the Thundering Herd to take on Marshall. Let’s review what the college football odds makers are dealing and cash a winner.

Upstart Cardinals Suddenly at No. 3
The college football odds makers didn’t think much of Louisville a few weeks ago when they hung a line of 100-1 on the Cardinals to win the national championship. After last week’s 63-20 dismantling of the former No. 2 ranked team in the nation, Florida State, their tunes have certainly changed. The line has now plummeted to 5-1 on the Redbirds to contend for a title and must now be considered as the premier power in the ACC.

Louisville’s Lamar Jackson has been preternatural in his first three games of the season. The sophomore quarterback has put up dizzying numbers, averaging nearly 305 passing yards per game with eight passing touchdowns, 10 rushing touchdowns and owns 9.5 yards per carry average. Merely a footnote amongst college quarterbacks before the season began, he is now being whispered about as a serious Heisman candidate. Running back Brandon Radcliff and wideout James Quick have also been key contributors to the Louisville onslaught thus far.


Louisville vs. Marshall Prediction
According to SBR odds, the opening line on this game pegged the Cardinals as 19 ½ point road favorites but the Louisville buzz has caused this line to swell to as high as 27 in some of the world’s best sports betting sites. The logic, of course, is that if the Cardinals can beat a team like FSU by 43 points then they will certainly beat a pedestrian squad like Marshall by at least that much. Unfortunately, the world of college football and sports, in general, does not work like that as we call that transitive property, where if A beat B and B beats C then A must logically beat C. Ah, but if it were only that simple.

So we contrast all this Louisville hype with Marshall’s staggering loss to Akron last week where those who decided to include the Herd in their college football picks were stunned to watch the 17-point home favorite get waxed 65-38 after a dominating 62-0 performance against little Morgan State. Marshall’s defense was ranked 14th in the nation last year and a series of gaffes last week led to a disastrous loss. The long and short is this. Louisville is neither as good as they looked last week nor is Marshall as bad as they performed at home against Akron. Giving 27 points to a home dog like Marshall is simply too much and is a reaction to the nationwide media attention focused squarely on the Cardinals. Look for a letdown with Louisville after a huge victory over a national power while Marshall will be more determined than ever to demonstrate they are closer to the team that blanked Morgan State 62-0 in in Week 1 than the woeful bunch they were last week.


Free College Football Pick: Marshall +27 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

Swinger's 2016 College Football Record: 4-1

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