Free Expert College Football Picks Against The Spread - Missouri vs Florida

Mizzou Tigers HC and players

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 5:28 PM GMT

No. 18 Florida is spotting Missouri two touchdowns for their Saturday afternoon tilt at the Swamp. Too many points in this handicapper's opinion. Check out our preview with an NCAAF Pick here.
 

 Missouri Tigers (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)

Mizzou is coming off a much-needed bye after LSU routed it 42-7 in Baton Rouge last time out. The loss added to the Tigers’ recent struggles in conference play. They are 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the SEC. 

But Mizzou has played the Gators tough since joining the conference, going 3-1 ATS in four meetings. The defense is holding Florida to 16.2 points per game. Will it stuff the offense again? Maybe. Florida is scoring 5.9 points per game below its projected team total in the betting market in 2016.

The Tigers' offense is vastly improved over last season, and is one of the biggest shockers in the conference. Sophomore quarterback Drew Lock, flashing NFL-quality talent, is the SEC’s leading passer with 1,675 yards, 14 TDs, and 4 INTs on 113 of 199 passes. Overall, the Tigers post 37 points per game, 4.6 more per game than projected.

The defense has underwhelmed some, allowing 29.2 points per game to FBS foes. It’s played more efficiently than the number suggests, yielding 0.328 points per play. It has to limit the number of big scoring plays allowed to close the gap.

 

Florida Gators (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS)

The Gators received some unscheduled rest thanks to Hurricane Matthew causing SEC officials to postpone last Saturday’s matchup with LSU. Coaches hopefully used the time to ready up for Mizzou. Marked as home chalk has not been kind to Florida backers over recent years. The Gators are just 6-15 ATS as a home favorite in its last 21 games, and 2-5 under head coach Jim McElwain. The Gators are -13.5 favorites at most sportsbooks.

The defense is one of the best in the country, again. It’s 230.4 yards allowed per game is second in the nation only to Michigan (212.8). Under McElwain, the Gators yield 12.8 points to SEC foes at the Swamp.

Generating points is the Gators’ bane. Since last season, it averages 24.2 points per game against SEC opponents, and scored just 13 last time out at Vanderbilt. The offense misfires in the running and passing games almost equally, posting 4.3 and 7.1 yards per game respectively against FBS opponents—each rank around the 70th percentile nationally.

 

Final Analysis

Mizzou is 7-2 ATS as a road dog against the SEC East since joining the conference in 2012, averaging 9.8 points better than the spread. The defense has held opponents to 20.3 points per game in regulation time during this span. The way Florida is playing on offense, chances are the Tigers unit keeps them alive in this one. Double-digit points are a lot to overcome in a contest that may struggle to get out of the 40-point range. Bettors can lay the key number in the NCAAF odds. Mizzou +14 (-110) is the free college football pick.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 

Free College Football Pick: Missouri +14Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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