Free Expert College Football Picks Against The Spread For Week 5

San Diego State Aztecs team celebrating

Saturday, October 1, 2016 2:48 PM GMT

The college football odds makers have a full slate on their plates and below we explore the sharpest sides on the board. Let's go cash those winners with some NCAAF picks!

 Missouri Tigers vs LSU Tigers  

LSU has a lot going on this week other than football, so let’s just say I don’t buy them being able to turn everything around in one week to blow out a quality opponent. Of course, Les Miles is inexplicably gone, which has brought in interim coach, Ed Orgeron, but also a new staff and practice procedures. After all that, it is also homecoming week in Baton Rouge, which is super awesome if you are a star football player in one of the biggest programs in the country I’m sure. Awesome in ways off of the field… Let’s also add in the fact that star running back, Leonard Fournette, is a game time decision and may not play at all.

Coming to Baton Rouge Saturday is another Tiger squad, who has used an explosive passing game to score an average of 44.5 points per game. Missouri quarterback, Drew Lock, has passed for 1,508 yards and 14 touchdowns in 4 games, both marks ranked 2nd in the country. If Missouri is able to score first, the LSU Tigers will be hard pressed to keep up, and if LSU is leading late in the game, Missouri has the offensive talent to make a backdoor cover of this steep home chalk a real possibility.

This game exemplifies a reason to have more than one sportsbook account, as I am turning to the underdog value for my NCAAF week 5 pick, taking the Missouri Tigers +13.5 points in this game.


Free NCAAF Pick: Missouri +18.5 
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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San Diego State Aztecs vs South Alabama Jaguars         

This game will not likely end up the way the Jaguars want, as the 18th ranked San Diego State Aztecs roll into town. The Aztecs have one of the best running games in the country right now, gaining an average of 260.7 yards per game on the ground. That just happens to coincide with the poor rushing defense of the Jaguars, who allow an average of 240 yards per game on the ground – near the bottom of the FBS standings.

San Diego State beat California and Northern Illinois in the last two weeks; teams that have just as bad rushing defenses, or worse, as the Jaguars. Still, the Aztecs were not able to blow those teams out of the water. This line has moved down from -20 to -18 in part from what I believe is too much stock being put into the South Alabama win in this series last year. That is not likely to happen again because of the great improvement in the San Diego State defense. The Aztecs are near the top of the country in rushing defense, and South Alabama only puts up 112.3 yards per game on the ground. They do put up some yards in the air at 282.5 per game, but their 5 passing touchdowns in 4 games tells me the Jaguars won’t be able to come back on the Aztecs if they build any kind of lead at all. Take the Aztecs and lay the points in this one.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: San Diego State -18 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes, now offering 50% Free Play Bonus
2016 College Football Record: 12-12-1, -1.30 Units

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