Free College Football Predictions Against The Spread - Kansas vs Baylor

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, October 13, 2016 2:13 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 13, 2016 2:13 PM UTC

Our College Football handicapper likes the Bears in this matchup to maul their opponent and keep it up for the entire game. Maybe the Jayhawks should heed the standard advice to just play dead.


The Baylor Bears only play one game in a 28-day span in October, and unfortunately for the Kansas Jayhawks, it is them. The Baylor Bears are coming off of a bye week after a scare on the road at Iowa State, a game they eventually came back from behind to win 45-42. They have an open date after this game too before traveling to play Texas. No such rest for Kansas, as they are coming off of a 23-24 loss to TCU as a 30.5-point underdog at home. The odds makers don’t see the same situation repeating itself in this game, as the Baylor Bears have been instilled as 34.5-point favorites at books such as 5Dimes. The O/U total is sitting at 67 across the board after opening at 66.5.

Whenever you see a line like this you always have to consider the motivation of the heavily favored team. In this case, I think the Bears have the right mindset as to not look past Kansas. For one, they just saw the Jayhawks almost upset TCU as a 30.5-point underdog. Second, they almost got upset themselves in their last game as a 17.5-point favorite on the road at Iowa State. Third, they are 19 to 22-year-olds that have been itching to play for two weeks and know this will be their only chance to make an impression on the poll rankings for the month. Baylor also becomes bowl eligible with a win, a fact that has not been lost on the players according to local interviews.

Baylor has crushed Kansas in their last two matchups, springing out to 30+ point leads at halftime in both the 60-14 win in 2014 and the 66-7 win in 2015. If their offensive performances are any indications this year, a quick start again is a foregone conclusion, as the Bears rank 7th in the FBS in total yards per game at 568.4 and 13th in the nation in points scored at 42.6 per game. On the other end of things, Baylor ranks 20th in the country in scoring defense in only allowing 19.2 points per game.

I don’t really know what to add here about Kansas, just that they score an average of 13 points while giving up 49 on the road this year. Their average loss on the road this year has been by 36 points. Those losses were to Memphis and Texas Tech, who I don’t believe to be as strong as Baylor.

This doesn’t figure to be much of a game, and I don’t think I’ll watch it, but the Bears should be looking for style points. They’ll go up big and not be able to help themselves from scoring more, so I’m taking Baylor at -34 points at BetOnline as one of my Week 7 College Football Picks. Be sure to shop around and have multiple books to choose from and get this number under 35.

2016 College Football Record: 17-19-2, -4.00 Units

Free College Football Pick: Baylor -34Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3028309, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,180,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here