Free College Football Picks for Oklahoma State vs. Baylor

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 20, 2014 2:08 PM GMT

Everybody’s saying Baylor needs to run up the score on Oklahoma State on Saturday night in Waco so maybe taking the Over in a likely score-fest is possibly a better betting route than laying the 28+ points.

Odds Overview
Oklahoma State vs. #6 Baylor: (Baylor -28½, 67½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Sunday 00:30 (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT): You know the story here in this Big 12 matchup from McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas on Saturday night, 6th-ranked (AP) Baylor (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS, 5-1 Conference) needs to beat Oklahoma State (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS, 3-4 Conference) by a zillion points or something to impress some people in some stupid committee that it is they who deserve to be that potential fourth and final team to make the first-ever FCS Playoff, maybe proving the nouveau system should have maybe had 8 teams in it in the first place. Knowing the Bears (8-1 SU L9) need to, and have the tools to romp in this game, college football odds set the point spread bar very, very high (-28½), and, as always, the Total Points is set relatively high (67½) for a game to be played on FieldTurf in forecasted 60° weather in potentially stormy conditions and 97% of Precipitation. So, maybe a little rain-skating on the turf by Baylor for your viewing pleasure este sábado noche, señor?

There were no Total Team Points prop odds at press time, but the Money Line (Winner) odds are worth a laugh/consideration with Baylor massive -5000 Favorites and Oklahoma State at +1000 Underdogs (Skybet).

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Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys (263 PF-300 PA) are down from recent years and it shows in both the PF-PA numbers—where Oklahoma State isn’t used to being in the negative—and in the ATS stats, where the Cowboys are 3-7 ATS this season headed into this Road tilt in Starkville. Last year, Oklahoma State (0-5 ATS L5) spanked Baylor as 7½-point Underdogs, winning 49-17 at Home, so expect the Bears to not only be motivated by an NCAAF Final Four possibility, but also maybe by a little revenge after that 32-point spanking last season in Stillwater.

Oklahoma State (1-4 ATS L5 Road) was a Road Underdog just 4 times in 4 seasons heading into this one, so that speaks volumes about how maybe recruiting, other schools in the conference and time have all caught up with this Cowboys program who have sent talented players like Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas and Dez Bryant to the NFL.

This season on offense, the Cowboys (16-8 SU L24) are led by QB Daxx Garman (152 completions, 2,041 yards, 12 TDs), RB Desmond Roland (136 rushes, 533 yards, 7 TDs) and WRs David Glidden (34 receptions, 45o yards, TD), Brandon Sheperd and James Washington (4 TDs), but this team used to be known for churning up the yards like Baylor does now and Oklahoma State ranks just 69th Passing and 99th Rushing in the country offensively. On defense, the Cowboys (1-4 SU L5) are 83rd in the nation in average Points Scored per game (26.3 ppg) and 91st in Points Allowed (30.0 ppg). This team is simply now just a shadow of its former selves.

 

Baylor Bears
Baylor (16-1 SU L17 Home) ranks #1 in the nation in Scoring (50.1) and most regular season games often seem like scrimmages to the Bears (451 PF-189 PA), so imagine the desire for Baylor to score with its potential chances to play for a national championship possibly depending on the margin of victory and/or style they play against this opponent (Oklahoma State) being worked into the quotient in the grand scheme of things. This kind of situation—trying to win by as many as possible to affect an outside perception—rarely happens in sports as it’s usually just about the W’s and the L’s, but here, the host Bears need to win and they need to win big.

QB Bryce Petty (164 completions, 2,421 yards, 21 TDs) leads the circus in Waco which is tops in the nation in average Yards Per Game (581.1) and will undoubtedly be extra revved up come Saturday night. Baylor (#3 in nation in Passing, 354.2 ypg) and Petty have a number of weapons to throw the ball to, including Corey Coleman (44 receptions, 796 yards, 8 TDs, 18.1 ypc), KD Cannon (38 receptions, 731 yards, 6 TDs, 19.2 ypc), Antwan Goodley (38 receptions, 572 yards, 4 TDs, 15.1 ypc) and Jay Lee (28 receptions, 440 yards, 5 TDs, 15.7 ypc), among others. And as you can tell from the Bears’ gaudy ypc numbers, once they get the pigskin, they go, go, go. This is truly a fun team to watch when they are on and can be very reminiscent of an  Arena Football team at times. RB Coleman can also get the yards on the ground when necessary, and he has rushed 177 times for 864 yards and 7 TDs and could top the 1,000-yard mark in this game.

On the injury front, Baylor LB Bryce Hager (hip) is listed as Probable for this game.

 

Best Betting Approaches
With Baylor (19-7-1 ATS L2+ seasons) just 2-16 SU L18 against Oklahoma State and 2-6 SU L8 here at Home in Waco against the Cowboys, it’s hard to want to take, or recommend taking the Bears at such a high number (-28, -28½), although betting Baylor in the First Half marketplace makes some sense in this particular situation, weather permitting of course. And with Oklahoma State 7-1 ATS L8 against Baylor, backing the Bears here is tough as the Cowboys should be able to put some points on the scoreboard. But it’s important to point out here that the vast majority of those positive Oklahoma State ATS numbers came when the Cowboys were much more respectable than they are right now—and it’s hard to want to back a potentially apathetic team here that’s lost 5 straight ATS anyway. And this is a Baylor team that’s a mind-blowing 15-2 ATS L17 at Home, so, if there is a lean with a side, it absolutely has to be with the hosts, despite the loads o’ lumber.

Although the Under is an impressive and fairly surprising 6-2 L8 games in this series in Waco, 5-2 L7 in this series and 5-1 in the L6 Oklahoma State games, the feel here is that the early tempo and pace—which should be set by Baylor (4-1 Over L5 Home)—will be rapid enough for an average of around 20 points per quarter, but make sure to check the weather report on Saturday if you do plan on betting a serious amount on the Total here because rain is in the forecast and it could definitely end up stifling the overall flow, ability to connect on passes and other little like FG and XP attempts which are where valuable points quite often do or don’t trickle in. So for your college football picks this week keep in mind that with so much at stake for them here, and the environment conducive to them rolling up some points, Baylor can’t help but push the pace. And this is a team that knows how to get up and down the field and still has to have a little chip on its collective shoulders after that nasty 41-27 loss at West Virginia in Week 7.

College Football Pick: Baylor First Half, Over 67½ at 5Dimes