Free College Football Picks: ML Upsets Worth Betting in Week 11

Steven Suarez

Saturday, November 14, 2015 4:34 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015 4:34 PM UTC

A highly entertaining day of football awaits, and we're here to break down the college football betting lines and come up with a couple moneyline selections.

Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners
What a game this should be. Two of the best teams in not only the Big 12 but the entire country will meet up in Texas this weekend, and we should be expecting a back-and-forth shootout, if the College Football Odds are anything to go by.

Looking at 5Dimes, we see Baylor is favored by 2.5 points, with a lot of the top online sportsbooks following suit. As for the O/U, it's all the way up at 77.5 points, which isn't surprising considering the Bears have been the league's most effective offense (scoring an insane 57 points per game), with Oklahoma right up there in a tie for second (46 points a game).

The Bears are still undefeated and will be trying to preserve that spotless mark, but they were dealt a huge blow with the season-ending injury to starting QB Seth Russell. Jarrett Stidham will be stepping in as the new starter, and it's going to be interesting to see how the Baylor offense is affected.

And, with Oklahoma on a roll right now, we're liking the chances of a Sooners road victory this weekend. They've won four consecutive games and each win came by at least 36 points, showcasing just how dominant Oklahoma can be when clicking on all cylinders. Baker Mayfield and company have proven they can hang with just about anyone offensively, and that's going to hold them in good stead for this road game versus the Bears.

With the question marks at the most important position in football, and with the Sooners playing their best football lately, we think this is as likely of a spot as any for Baylor to pick up their first loss of the season, so we'll take a chance on the Oklahoma moneyline for Saturday night's conference showdown.

College Football Pick: Oklahoma Sooners ML +120 (and +2 ATS)

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Houston Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers
Our next stop is Houston, where Greg Ward Jr. and the Cougars will do battle with Paxton Lynch and the Tigers.

There's been some movement to the college football odds, with the line going down to as low as 5.5 points at some sites, with Houston of course being pegged as the favorite at home. We can expect a very high-scoring affair in this one, considering how lethal both offenses have been, so the O/U of 70.5 points isn't surprising to see at all.

With Ward at the helm, Houston has still yet to lose a game this season, going 9-0 overall and 5-0 in conference play. The Cougars have moved up to #16 in both the AP and Coaches polls, and they've been scoring an impressive 44.0 points per game ahead of Saturday night's encounter with Memphis. Ward has a 13:4 TD:INT ratio and has run for 829 yards and 16 additional scores with his legs, and he's been one of the most dangerous players in all of college football week after week. Kenneth Farrow and Demarcus Ayers have been big parts of the offense too.

Thing is, the Tigers are one of the few teams out there that have the personnel to keep pace with Houston offensively. Memphis is also averaging 44.0 points per game, with Lynch throwing 19 touchdown passes while only getting picked off twice. Mose Frazier, Anthony Miller and Phil Mayhue have all gone over 500 yards receiving, while the Tigers have sported a very well-balanced rushing attack too.

We're expecting Memphis to bounce back after last week's crash back to reality (a 45-20 loss to Navy), and we believe there's value in backing the Tigers for our College Football Picks, even on the moneyline. As we mentioned, they should be up for the challenge of staying toe-to-toe with Ward and company, and they're already battle-tested, as shown by a great home win over Ole Miss earlier in the season. 

College Football Pick: Memphis Tigers +200 (and +5.5 ATS)

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