Free College Football Picks for Iowa State vs. TCU

Megan Rochester

Thursday, December 4, 2014 6:13 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 4, 2014 6:13 PM UTC

The TCU Horned Frogs will faceoff in a regualr season match-up with Iowa State on Saturday, and although the NCAA Football odds are heavily in favor of TCU, there is a great amount of pressure on the game. Will TCU be able to pull off covering a massive spread and prove their good enough to brawl with the big-dogs in the playoffs? 

Iowa State vs No. 3 TCU: Saturday, December 6, 12:00 PM
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

If the college football odds for this weekend’s matchup between the Horned Frogs and the Cyclones tell us anything, its that TCU should have no problems preserving their impressive record. However, that could mean they will have a tough game ahead of them in terms of  their efforts to impress the College Football Playoff Committee.

The oddsmakers opened up the lines with a 30 point spread, but it quickly shot up to 34 points.The Frogs will be coming into this game not only to defeat Iowa State, but to obliterate the odds ATS in order to put the playoff odds in their favor. Let's take a look at how the Frogs could measure up in this game of playoff fate.


Can TCU Dominate the Spread?
They are not only 10-1 SU in their season, but have also posted an impressive 9-2 ATS record while doing so. Within their last 5 seasons, TCU has gone 5-0 ATS against the Cyclones, and they are in the perfect situation to do it again on Saturday. TCU has already pulled off five wins this season by more than 30 points, and Iowa State, on the other hand, hasn’t won a contest in their last five games.

Iowa has already been defeated by one team this season by 34 points, and the rest of their losses are by 20 points are fewer, including Baylor who is ranked No. 6 in the playoff standings. If Iowa can contain TCU a little bit on the defensive side of the ball and see a good performance from their QB Sam Richardson, they could very easily cover such a large spread.

TCU Playing Leapfrog in the Playoff Polls
TCU is currently hanging on to a 96 percent chance of making the college football playoffs going into their game with Iowa. Their chances have rocked from 80 percent earlier this week due to the effort from the Florida State Seminoles.  The Playoff Committee is not very fond of the FSU’s recent outings, especially in the late-season, and TCU has proven themselves a solid season since Game 1.

After head-to-head comparisons were made of all the playoff potentials, TCU still sits with the same ranking as No. 3, but Florida State has been moved to No. 4 making the Horned Frogs chances higher than ever before.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, TCU will have a 99 percent chance of making the playoff if they win this easy game, and even if the rest of the top 5 playoff ranks win as well, they will obtain a 95 percent chance. However, the stakes are high and there is no room for a slip-up for any of the teams in the rankings, and the Iowa game should be taken very seriously because if the Frogs lose this game on Saturday, their almost guaranteed spot will slip through their fingers as they will only have a 12 percent chance of making the playoff in a losing situation.


What to Expect
The college football betting odds will most likely stay put at a 34 point spread advantage in this game. What if TCU's Coach Gary Patterson decides not to play so hard so he won't risk injuries in the playoffs? What if TCU simply can't cover such a huge spread? The Totals in this game are currently at 69 points in sportsbooks. There has been a lot of talk over the spread, but in reality, there seems to be better odds against the totals. The total at some sportsbooks are listed as high as 69 points for this game. That number seems a little too high for Iowa State to keep up with as they only average 25 points per game. For your college football picks this week, if you missed the spread opportunity at 30 points ATS, lock in on the Under for the game instead. 

College Football Pick: TCU & the 'Under' 69 points at 5Dimes

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