Free College Football Picks: Defenses to Limit Scoring in Utah

Charles Stark

Friday, October 16, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

It's always fun to take the 'Over' & watch the teams go up n' down the field at will but that might just not be the case tonight. Check inside a O/U pick for Boise St.-Utah St. Game. 

College Football Odds
College football odds makers came out with this game a little bit below 50, but it has moved to 49.5 and 50 at some sportsbooks. For my College Football Pick of the day I'm going to back under the total of 50. You can get this number at pretty good odds at Bookmaker -110.

 

Boise State Broncos
Boise State comes in averaging 38.4 points per game, 459 point to yards per game, and a third-down 31.08% conversion rate. They like to establish themselves with the run game first running the ball 54.77% of the time, but this might be a night in which they're going to have to win through the air. They should be in for a tough fight against a good Utah State defense that plays well at home and that poor third-down conversion rate might spell trouble if they can't keep the chains moving. Freshman Brett Rypien has done a very good job stepping in for the Broncos, but I think Boise State is in for real battle tonight.

Defensively the Broncos allowed 14.4 points per game, 251.8 yards per game, and allow a third-down 33.73% conversion rate. Statistically they are one of the best defenses in the country and their run defense is outstanding allowing only 65.6 yards per game which ranks second in all of NCAA football. Utah State which is without normal starter Chuckie Keeton might have trouble trying to establish the run against this very good well-rounded Boise State defense. Their pass defense has been strong as well as they have allowed only a 47.27% conversion rate which ranks in the top five in the country.

 

Utah State Aggies
Utah State averages 30 points per game, 386 yards per game, and a third-down 41.07% conversion rate. Like Boise State they like to try to establish the run first running the ball 55.35% of the time. Sophomore Kent Myers should continue to start for Utah state and has done a decent job but overall is just not as good as Keeton, even though Keeton was not playing particularly well up to his injury. Whether they try to pass the ball a little bit more tonight remains to be seen, but no matter how they try to produce yards I think they will have difficulty moving the ball.

Defensively Utah state allows 21.8 points per game, 331 yards per game, and a third-down 36.84% conversion rate. Like Boise State they are very good against the run allowing only 115 yards per game which ranks in the top 25 of NCAA football. Their passing defense is not nearly as good, but I'm anticipating for them to play well at home and give the freshman quarterback for Boise State a bit of trouble.

With both these teams combining for over 68 points per game on average the total for this game seems just a little bit low. Defensively, when we think of their averages, it starts to make a bit more sense and I think this game is going to lean to that type of ballgame. I wouldn't be shocked if Utah state pull the upset, but I think the real value here lies with the under. Unless some crazy events happen that lead to some weird scoring this game should stay well below the number. For one of your college football picks I recommend taking the under in this matchup and look for a low-scoring affair.

College Football Pick: 'Under' at Bookmaker

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