Follow Recent Betting Trends & Add NIU to Your Week 10 College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 5:25 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 5:25 PM UTC

We have this MAC West clash as Northern Illinois visits Toledo. Join us reading this betting preview to find a free college football pick inside.

Northern Illinois vs. Toledo (-7-) 8:00 ESPN
Northern Illinois visits Toledo for the first of many November contests in the MAC West that will decide the champion of that division. This contest pits the frontrunners for that crown with perennial champion Northern Illinois traveling to Toledo, who is a perfect 7-0 SU, 6-0 ATS including 4-0 SU ATS in MAC play. This is also the first of 16 midweek MAC games that will be televised by the ESPN family of networks in the next month. It goes a long way in adding extra exposure for an up and coming conference. 

These two teams are certainly not strangers to each other. They have battled for MAC West division supremacy for each of the last 5 seasons.  But, it hasn’t been much of a rivalry, as NIU has emerged with victory in each of those games.  In fact, Toledo, in the last 6 seasons has a total of only 8 conference losses with 5 of them coming to NIU. Northern is one of the best road teams in the NCAA, including a 19-8 ATS mark as road dog. 

Toledo began the year with a vastly inexperienced offensive line which did not return a starter. With that realization, the Rockets relied on a greatly improved defense that allows just 16 PPG on only 4.9 YP play and just 125/3.7 overland. As the year has moved forward, the OL has matured with Toledo playing its best offensive ball with the start of MAC play. Led by Alabama transfer, QB Ely, and a deep stable of running backs led by RB Hunt, Toledo is averaging 37 PPG with 200 CLUB numbers. In the last 4 games, since the start of MAC play, they have won (51-35) vs. UMass (63-20) vs. E. Michigan, (38-7) vs. Kent and (24-10) vs. Ball State. Those, however, are arguably 4 of the 5 weakest teams in the MAC. In the month of November, the cream will rise to the top as Toledo must play these Huskies, along with road trips to C. Michigan, Bowling Green (the best of the East) and W. Michigan. Tonight’s burden is not only the outright victory, but the challenge of covering an inflated line as a result of their 6-0 ATS spread mark (the only undefeated ATS team in the nation) by a total of 83 points. It makes this line a TD higher than where it would have been opening week. 

The road to this meeting has been quite dichotomous for Northern Illinois. They enter 5-3 SU, 5-2 ATS for the year. In looking to build their strength of schedule, NIU scheduled September road trips to defending national champion, Ohio St., and defensively stout Boston College.  They played admirably in each of those games with covers in each and a chance to win each game outright. Steeled by that high level of competition and backed by the best road numbers in college football, I stepped in with them for their MAC road opener at C. Michigan on October 3rd.  As 2 point road favorite, I felt there was great value in the betting line with the defending champion. But, 4 TOs by a normally careful NIU squad resulted in a (29-19) loss. Our only 6% loss of the season and 1 of only 10 (6%) losses in my last 64 releases of these vaunted plays. Since that loss, NIU has responded with a heart of a champion, defeating MAC also rans Ball, Miami, OH and E. Michigan with an average of 51 PG. Now, the question is whether QB Hare and RB Bouagnon can carry the mantel of the division champions. 

At a greatly inflated line with strong series history and road ability behind them, the Huskies are my college football pick as your midweek snack in the MAC. Put the college football odds in your favor and join me for this winner to start your week.  

College Football Pick: Northern Illinois +7.5 at TheGreek

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