Follow Betting Trends & Add Kansas State -5.5 to Your College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 7:46 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015 7:46 PM GMT

Iowa State travels to Kansas State for this late-season Big 12 matchup which will have no bearings whatsoever on the Big 12 standings. Check our free college football pick inside.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State Noon ET
In a rare Noon ET Big 12 start, Iowa State travels to Kansas State for this late-season Big 12 matchup which will have no bearings whatsoever on the Big 12 standings. It certainly will have consequence for us as our lone ranger play of the week. As you will remember, each week I choose a team who will have little backing by the public. Last week, it was today’s opponent, Iowa State, in their (35-31) loss as +14 to Oklahoma State. It was a game Iowa State needed to have any chance of getting a Bowl invitation. It is also one from which there will be a huge hangover. 

Considering the fact that Iowa State led virtually the entire game and outrushed the Cowboys 249-155, the public will only remember that gutsy home dog performance and be eager to line up with the Cyclones this week. As usual, they will be wrong! In addition to looking to play on Iowa State, no one will be interested in backing a Kansas State team who has only 3 wins on the season and comes off 6 consecutive losses all against Big 12 opposition. And, now they are a favorite?  A closer look at the schedule shows that those 6 losses were against the 6 best teams in the Big 12. But, the fact that Kansas State gave up 59 points last week to Texas Tech (and 658 yards) will have no one interested in these Wildcats.

This is a perfect example of our AFP indicator. Iowa State is 6-3 ATS for the season with a (+36) net AFP. Kansas State is 4-5 ATS this year with a (-52) net AFP. Combined, it gives Kansas State a (-88) net AFP differential and results in a line that is more than 2 TDs less than where it would have been opening week.  As a final note regarding line value, I must point out that Kansas State has won the last 7 meetings in this matchup.  The last 5 have all come as the favored team with 4/5 wins by 7 or more points. Though this is a young and improving Iowa State team, it must be noted that their efforts on the road have been somewhat lacking. Four times Iowa State has taken to the road this year and 4 times they have returned home with defeat. All by 7 or more points! 

I invite you to put the college football odds in your favor this week and join me and the lone ranger in my college football pick on Kansas State.

College Football Pick: Kansas State -5.5 at TheGreek

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