Florida State vs. Boston College Free Picks: Bet Eagles to Get the Points at Home

Charles Stark

Friday, September 18, 2015 3:07 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 18, 2015 3:07 PM GMT

Florida State travels to Boston College for some Friday night betting football action & I will be adding Boston College plus the points as one of my college football picks. Find out why inside.

Boston College last year was not a strong home team and actually had a better record on the road, despite that, for this matchup it seems like they will have enough on defense to keep this game close. Head coach of the Eagles Steve Addazio has done a nice job rebuilding the Boston College program, and I think his style of coaching of physical football will keep this game closer than most people probably anticipate. Along with hitting on Louisville and at least one more play that I will have for Saturday,

 

NCAA Odds
Right now across the board Florida State is favored by 7.5. That seems like around a logical number for me and almost seems a little bit like trap line, for those that use that terminology. 

 

Florida State Seminoles
Offensively so far this season Florida State has average 46.5 points per game, 538.5 total yards of offense, and a third-down 44.00% conversion rate. Head coach Jimbo Fisher will go with "new" quarterback Everett Golson and so far it seems they haven't missed a beat. They also have one of the best running backs in the country and Dalvin Cook and some solid receivers returning. On the offensive line they have some good potential because they recruit well but they only return in total nine career starts up front. The learning curve will have to be quick because Boston College will be tough against the run. Florida State should have some success in the passing game with the Golson and their skilled receivers but don't look for them to run all over Boston College.

Defensively the Seminoles have allowed an average of 15 points per game, 287 total yards per game, and a third-down 16.67% conversion rate. Of course they really overmatched their first two opponents Texas State and South Florida, but they are in for much tougher test tonight. A couple of their most consistent defensive players are gone but they do have some solid linebackers back who will have to step up against a good Boston College running game. This is really the key to this matchup, and I will discuss more about Boston College on offensive below, will Florida State be able to stop the Boston College run game? I am anticipating for them to do enough on defense to win this game, but for the Eagles to do enough grinding it out to keep it close.

 

Boston College
Last year against Florida State Boston College scored 17 points, and gained 313 total yards with 240 of those yards coming on the ground. They played an efficient ballgame and I expect for them to give Florida State the same amount of trouble this time around, even though it seems they have quite the turnover on offense, especially the line. Most likely they will try to establish the run with running backs Jon Hilliman and Tyler Rouse, but getting holes for them might be an issue. Just like Florida State, on the offensive line they have a lot of new faces. The difference though in my opinion is that head coach Addazio specializes in the offensive line. They only have one player who started more than once last year and a lot of freshman backups. For them to have a shot against Florida State they're going to have to play great and avoid injuries up front.

Last year defensively against Florida State they allowed 20 points, and 391 total yards of offense with only 110 coming on the ground. They stuck with the Seminoles the whole game with some decent clock management and winning the battle in the trenches for the most part. With plenty of returners coming back to a decent defense I expect Boston College to make Florida State work for everything. If their offense can limit turnovers their defense is good enough to keep them in this game by themselves. One issue, already mentioned, that Florida State could exploit is their secondary, but I think the defensive front is good enough to force Golson into some errant passes.

If Boston College can play the style that they want to play and grind things out with Florida State this game should go down to the wire. But if Florida State gets into a groove with their passing game they could win this game by two touchdowns or more. Still, I like for the Eagles with a good defense, very good coach, and solid running game to keep this game to within a touchdown. For one of your College Football Picks I suggest backing Boston College plus the points tonight.

College Football Pick: Eagles at +7.5 at 5Dimes -109.

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