Florida State vs. Louisville Picks, Predictions Week 3 College Football: ACC Foes Collide on Friday Night
The betting public is happily fading the Louisville Cardinals and QB Malik Cunningham for Friday night’s home opener against Florida State. Let's examine the matchup in our Florida State-Louisville picks.
Florida State and Louisville collide in the first and most interesting of two Friday night college football games to begin Week 3.
Florida State (1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U)last played LSU in Week 1. The Seminoles eeked out a one-point victory during that thrilling contest after letting a 17-3 lead nearly slip away. Friday’s road game will be FSU’s first against an ACC opponent in 2022.
The crowd at Cardinal Stadium is sure to be fired up during Louisville's home opener (1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U). The team's defense rose to the occasion in a significant way during Week 2, and the Cards earned a road win over UCF.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 3 matchup between Florida State and Louisville (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Florida State vs. Louisville Game Info
Date: Friday, Sept. 16, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Cardinal Stadium, Louisville, KY
Weather: 79 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 4-6 mph winds (blowing southeast)
Florida State vs. Louisville Odds Analysis
Bettors are backing Florida State heavily, causing the opening spread to shift from FSU -1.5 to -3. Over 70% of the tickets and handle are on the Seminoles.
Public and sharp bettors seem to be disagreeing slightly on the Over/Under. The line opened at 54 and has risen to a consensus line of 57 with 62% of tickets on the Over, however, those tickets account for just 51% of the handle.
Florida State vs. Louisville Picks
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Florida State vs. Louisville Moneyline Pick
Louisville ML (+125) ★
There’s no denying Florida State has logged the more impressive win of these two teams. However, it’s difficult to identify discernible gaps between the sides. With the majority of the betting market favoring the Seminoles, Louisville provides an intriguing opportunity as a home underdog that's more than capable of winning outright.
The Cardinals may have gotten past UCF last week, but it was hardly in the manner that most analysts were expecting. Only 34 points were scored in a game with a closing total of 62. Cunningham and Louisville's offense produced another very poor showing. Scott Satterfield’s team only registered the win because the defense bailed out an offense that averaged 31.6 points per game in 2021.
Combine the Week 2 showing with an ugly, seven-point performance in Week 1 against Syracuse, and one could argue that Louisville’s offense has been one of the most significant disappointments early in the college football season. There's simply too much talent on the unit not to perform better. Perhaps a raucous crowd for a home opener under the lights is exactly the spark the Cardinals need offensively.
Lastly, Louisville actually went into its 2021 meeting with Florida state as a small road favorite, and the school notched an eight-point victory. The majority of the starters are back for both teams, so it’s difficult to argue that FSU should suddenly be laying nearly a field goal on the road.
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Florida State vs. Louisville O/U Pick
Over 56.5 (-115) ★★★
If we assume Louisville’s offense will improve sooner than later, it’s no surprise to see that the total has grown larger ahead of Friday’s showdown. After most of the market moved the line to 57 or higher, bettors are encouraged to capitalize on the half-point of value available at FanDuel.
Florida State’s defense did a fine job during the school's win over LSU. However, it’s fair to wonder whether a new system, new quarterback, and reduced pool of offensive talent were more responsible for the Tigers’ struggles than anything FSU did defensively.
Of course, the Seminoles counter Louisville’s dual-threat QB with one of their own. Jordan Travis will benefit from an experienced wide receiver room throughout the 2022 season. A Florida State offensive line that's been much-maligned in recent years did a phenomenal job while not allowing a sack against LSU's ferocious front.
While Louisville’s defense was extremely impressive in Week 2, it's hardly viewed as a juggernaut unit. Both offenses boast enough skill to drive the point total up.
Florida State vs. Louisville Prop Pick
Treshaun Ward Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114) ★★★
Some were actually surprised when Treshaun Ward was chosen to lead Florida State’s backfield in 2022 given the presence of two other capable backs on the roster. It will be worth monitoring over the long haul how the touches are dispersed between Ward, Lawrance Toafili, and Trey Benson. Ward is clearly the top option right now based on what we saw during the win over LSU.
Ward mustered 49 rushing yards on 16 carries against the Tigers. While that production is hardly spectacular, it also came against arguably one of the country's 10 best defensive fronts. The Louisville run defense that Ward and the Seminoles will face on Friday night isn't nearly as intimidating.
The Cardinals gave up over 130 rushing yards per game to opponents in 2021. Both Syracuse and UCF amassed over 200 yards on the ground against them, so it appears there are still improvements for Louisville's run defense to make.
Where to Bet on Florida State-Louisville Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Florida State-Louisville picks made 9/14/2022 at 3:33 p.m. ET
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