Florida Spread vs. Alabama for College Football Picks

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, September 16, 2014 10:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2014 10:15 PM UTC

Our NCAA football betting expert Ross Benjamin has gone 10-2 at SBR Picks so far in the 2014 season. Read his football wagering article on Saturday’s Florida/Alabama game which is concluded with a college football free pick.

SEC Battle in Tuscaloosa
The Alabama Crimson Tide will host the Florida Gators on Saturday at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa with the opening kickoff slated for 3:30 PM ET. The game will be televised nationally on CBS. According to college football odds, Alabama is a 15.5 point favorite, and there was no total posted at the time of this writing. Alabama has won the last 3, and 6 of the last 8 versus Florida. The Crimson Tide has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus Florida, and won those games by an average of 24.0 points per game.

Alabama Crimson Tide's 2014-15 College Football Betting Preview


Gators Survive a Scare
After opening the year with a 65-0 home blowout win as a 41.0 point favorite versus Eastern Michigan, things didn’t go quite as smoothly this past Saturday in Gainesville versus Kentucky. Florida needed 3 overtimes before coming away with a 36-30 win, and weren’t close to covering as a 17.5 point favorite. However, after coming off a terrible 4-8 season in 2013, the 2-0 start to 2014 is a positive sign they can build on. This may be a make or break season for Gators head coach Will Muschamp who’s gone 24-16 since taking over in 2011. That may be acceptable at many programs across the country, but patience is running thin in Gainesville. His job security will become a bit clearer over the next 5-games. During that span, Florida will face 4 nationally ranked SEC opponents, and the 5th one is versus a much improved Tennessee team on the road. The Gators have gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a conference underdog of 2.5 or more, and they’ve won just 1 of those 10-games outright.


Roll Tide Roll
Alabama is off and running to a 3-0 start to the 2014 season. Since 2009 the Crimson Tide has won 3 national championships, appeared in 4 BCS Bowl games, and gone 60-7 under the guidance of head coach Nick Saban. After a tougher than expected opening 33-23 win over West Virginia, they pounded inferior opponents Florida Atlantic and Southern Mississippi by a combined score of 93-12. Since the start of the 209 season, Alabama has gone an extremely profitable 13-5 ATS as a conference home favorite of 7.0 or more.


Final Analysis
I’m not totally enamored with this 2014 Alabama team. Although I do believe they still remain one of the best teams in the country, I still sense some vulnerability with this club. The Florida Gators will catch a lot of flack this week for barely escaping with a win versus Kentucky last week, but I’m here to tell you that the Wildcats are the most improved team in the SEC this season. When making your college football picks keep in mind the Gators remain a stout enough defensive team to keep this game relatively close.


College Football Betting System
Any home favorite of 18.0 or less, that’s coming off a non-conference win by 12-points or more, and they failed to cover as a home favorite, versus an opponent coming off win, and they also failed to cover as a home favorite, has gone 5-23 ATS since 1985. The underdog has won 14 of those 28-games outright. If this is a conference game, then the home favorite falls to 1-15 ATS and 5-13 straight up since 1985.

College Football Pick: Florida +14.5 over Alabama at 5Dimes

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