Florida Gators vs Florida St. Seminoles - College Football Pick ATS - Week 13

Florida Gators Player

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, November 25, 2016 7:01 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 25, 2016 7:01 PM UTC

The Florida Gators travel to Tallahassee to take on the Florida State Seminoles in their annual late November battle.  Last year, Florida State dominated the contest 27-2 as 3 point road chalk.

Florida at Florida State (-7) 8:00 PM ET 

Despite only winning the yardage battle, 304-262, it was the third consecutive year that the Seminoles won this rivalry game. Each week on these pages, I select an underdog of 7 or more points whom I believe can win the contest outright. This week’s selection of the Florida Gators, who clearly qualify as a Defensive Dandy, is an outstanding selection in that regard.  

So much more was expected of Florida State than the 8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS season they have authored. They had 17 returning starters coming off a 4 year run of 49-6 SU. But there have been 3 shocking losses by 43 at Louisville, 2 on this field to North Carolina and 3 on this field to Clemson. In those three contests, they gave up a total of 137 points. Against the other two quality offenses they faced, the Seminoles allowed 34 to Mississippi opening night and 35 to a potent USF team. In short, the defense has performed well below expectations allowing 26/371. Though Florida may not be in the class of those other five offensive teams, they are also the best defensive team that Florida State has faced all year.  

Best thing about playing Florida in this spot is that they are locked into the SEC Championship Game. Some may perceive a letdown following the 16-10 upset at LSU last week but the triple revenge motivation, the underdog role and clearly the better defense makes this a virtual no brainer for this bureau. By several indicators, the Gators own a Top 5 defense allowing just 13/282 and with the #3 pass efficiency defense in the country. Some may question the Gator offensive explosiveness but Purdue transfer QB Applebey has provided the emotional maturity that frosh QB Del Rio has lacked. Of late, RB Scarlett, averaging 5.8 YPR in the last two games, has provided excellent balance. Not only is it triple revenge for Florida but consideration should be given to the fact that the visitor has covered 5 consecutive games in this rivalry. No surprise to this bureau if this Defensive Dandy wins the game outright against an underachieving Florida State team who has failed consistently when stepping up in class. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Florida tonight.

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Free College Football Pick: Florida +7Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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