First SEC Coach Fired Odds Update & Over/Under on Total

butch jones

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 12:44 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 12:44 PM GMT

Sportsbooks updated their SEC head coach hot seat odds prior to Week 4, and a few are on fire. Check out the current line movement and take your guess at the over/under on total canned here.

BetOnline updated its odds on the first SEC head coach fired for the 2017 college football season. The seats are en fuego for Tennessee’s Butch Jones and Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin at odds of +120 and +175, respectively. No other coach is offered below +700 currently. Oddsmakers listed Jones and Sumlin as co-favorites at +140 to get canned first prior to the season opener.

Underwhelming starts have solidified their place on the board. Aggies regent Tony Buzbee called out Sumlin following an epic fourth-quarter collapse vs. UCLA in Week 1. The Bruins outscored Texas A&M 28-0 in the final period to snatch a 45-44 victory. To be fair, the Aggies entered L.A. 5-point underdogs, but a lackluster 24-14 win over Nicholls State in the follow-up effort did little to take the pressure off. Last week’s 50-43 win over Arkansas may have pacified some, but the belief is Sumlin must win 10 games to save his job. The six-year coach has three consecutive 8-5 seasons. College Station expects better.

Jones’ squad, meanwhile, has yet to cover a spread this season. The Volunteers barely squeaked by winless UMass 17-13 as 27.5-point favorites at Neyland Stadium last Saturday. Fans and the media alike eviscerated Jones following the uninspiring victory. Here’s the hard truth: Tennessee is 33-22 SU in five years under Jones’ tutelage, going 14-19 overall vs. conference foes. The team is one-dimensional and the state of the program appears to be regressing rather than improving. The clock is ticking.

Here are the updated odds at Betonline for the first SEC head coach fired. Included are opening lines from the start of the season, following Week 2, and current numbers:

SEC Coach
Aug. 31
Sept. 18
Sept. 27
Butch Jones (Tennessee)
+140
+150
+120
Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M)
+140
+275
+175
Gus Malzahn (Auburn)
+600
+600
+800
Ed Orgeron (LSU)
+800
+700
+1000
Barry Odom (Missouri)
+1200
+700
+700
Mark Stoops (Kentucky)
+1200
+1400
+1400
Derek Mason (Vanderbilt)
+1200
+2500
+2000
Bret Bielema (Arkansas)
+1600
+1200
+1000
Will Muschamp (S. Carolina)
+2000
+1400
+1400
Dan Mullen (Miss. St.)
+2500
+2000
+1600
Jim McElwain (Florida)
+4000
+1600
+2000
Kirby Smart (Georgia)
+5000
+12500
+15000
Nick Saban (Alabama)
+5000
+25000
+25000

 

So who goes first? Jones is a good bet. For big programs, firing a coach midseason is generally a no-no. For one, it does little to get ahead for the next year. It sends a bad message out to potential replacement candidates, stymies recruiting and puts the program in a negative light overall. But the situation is turning dire in Knoxville. Just Tuesday, Jones lashed out at the media for negative coverage of his team, labeling it “fake news” and hurting recruiting, morale, and the like. Jones himself is already generating whatever pessimistic undertones come with a midseason firing. The Vols are 7.5-point underdogs vs. Georgia this weekend, host South Carolina the following Saturday, and hit the road for dates at Alabama and Kentucky. The chances of winning at least two games in this stretch look bleak. Expect Jones’ ouster soon.

 

O/U on Number of SEC Coaching Changes?

Let’s play oddsmaker. What’s the over/under on number of SEC head coaches replaced this season? We’ll go with 2.5. The number fired: O/U 2.  In the last decade, 22 coaches have been replaced in the conference -- some fired, some forced out benevolently with the “retired” or “health issues” tag (Urban Meyer), while others left for greener pastures (James Franklin). Much of the high turnover has to do with the success of Alabama’s Nick Saban, the longest tenured coach in the league. Saban took the reigns in Tuscaloosa in 2007. Since, he has guided the Crimson Tide to four national and five conference championships. Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is the second-longest in charge (2009).

At least one coach has been “replaced” in the league every year in the last decade. The most in a season is four (2012). In addition, every team outside of Alabama has had at least two new men in charge. Here’s a list of the SEC head coaches replaced by year in the last decade:

2007: Houston Nutt (Arkansas), Ed Orgeron (Ole Miss)

2008: Tommy Tuberville (Auburn), Sylvester Croom (Miss.State), Phil Fulmer  (Tennessee)

2009: Rich Brooks (Kentucky), Lane Kiffin (Tennessee), Bobby Johnson (Vanderbilt)

2010: Urban Meyer (Florida), Robbie Caldwell (Vanderbilt)

2011: Bobby Petrino (Arkansas), Nutt (Ole Miss)

2012: John Smith (Arkansas), Gene Chizik (Auburn), Joker Phillips (Kentucky), Derek Dooley (Tennessee)

2013: James Franklin (Vanderbilt)

2014: Will Muschamp (Florida)

2015: Mark Richt (Georgia), Gary Pinkel (Missouri), Steve Spurrier (South Carolina)

2016: Les Miles (LSU), Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss)

The writing is on the wall for Jones and Sumlin being fired by season’s end. Some believe Mullen will be hot commodity at the end of the year, and his chances of finding a higher-profile gig outside of Starkville are high. Expect to see at least three new faces on the sidelines next season. 

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