Fighting Irish to Have Little Trouble With the Other Miami

notre dame football

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 29, 2017 2:06 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 29, 2017 2:06 PM UTC

Let’s look at the current odds for the Notre Dame-Miami (Ohio) nonconference game on Saturday and offer up two chalky picks -- thinking the Golden Domers should score around 5 TDs in this mismatch.

Miami Ohio at #22 Notre Dame (NBCS, 5 pm ET): Notre Dame Stadium (FieldTurf) in South Bend is the Site of this College Football Week 5 Nonconference meeting between the MAC’s Miami of Ohio and Independent Notre Dame. Offshore sportsbooks currently have #22 Notre Dame (3-1 SU/ATS) as 21- to 21½-point favorites (Bovada) over the visiting RedHawks (2-2 SU/1-3 ATS) with the Total in a tight 53 (BetOnline) to 53½ (BookMaker) range. The Money Line marketplace sees the Fighting Irish as massive -2,000 (BookMaker) chalk with underdog Miami (Ohio) priced at a high of +1,041. The First Half odds see Notre Dame currently lined at -12 (JustBet) with a First Half Total of 28½ (JustBet).


Miami (Ohio) RedHawks

The Cradle of Coaches may not be the football powerhouse it once was, but 4th-year Head Coach Chuck Martin has provided a stabilizing force in Oxford and has been a real money-maker at the betting windows, going 23-14-1 ATS (62.2%) despite a dismal 1-3 ATS start this 2017 Regular Season which has seen Miami Ohio (4-8 SU, 9-2 ATS in 2016) already lose twice outright as Favorites (26-31 @ MARSH, MIA -4 and 17-31 vs. CIN, MIA-3½). The RedHawks did get their first ATS win in Week 4 to escape (temporarily?) from our weekly 11 ATS Cats and Rats NCAA Football list, by beating MAC counterparts Central Michigan, 31-14 on the Road (CM -2½, 5Dimes). Last season Miami made some Regular Season history, L6 straight, then W6 straight to make a Bowl game (St, Petersburg Bowl), losing to Mississippi State 17-16.

QB Gus Ragland (881 Passing yards, 8 TDs, 2 INTs, 135.7 RAT), RB Kenny Young (220 yards, 4.2 ypc, 2 TDs) and the RedHawks are averaging 5.2 ypp when on Offense, and many of the trends point to backing Miami Ohio, which has gone 5-1 ATS L6 Road games, 4-1 ATS 5 vs. Teams With Winning Records and 5-2 ATS its L7 Following a SU Win as well as 5-2 ATS the L7 Roadies vs. Home Teams With Winning Records. Notre Dame is 1-8 ATS L9 Following an ATS Win and 1-5 ATS L6 Following a SU Win. Saying the Fighting Irish are choppy is accurate. The RedHawks presently have the #5 Red Zone Defense in the nation, but when you’ve played Marshall (3-9 SU in 2016), FCS side Austin Peay (0-11 SU in 2016), Cincinnati (4-8 SU in 2016) and Central Michigan (6-7 SU in 2016), well ...


Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Eighth-year Head Coach Brian Kelly (41-45-4 ATS) had himself a pretty decent QB last season in DeShone Kizer -- now starting for the Cleveland Browns -- but with Brandon Wimbush (366 Rushing yards, 6.4 ypc, 7 TDs) the Fighting Irish are averaging 6.2 ypp when on Offense, and Notre Dame (100/1 to win 2017 CFP National Championship, 5Dimes) has the quick-score ability teams need in order to make a run at an CFP spot, especially Independent ones with a loss (Georgia) already.

Here, expect Wimbush (664 Passing yards, 3 TDs) RB Josh Adams (499 Rushing yards, 7.7 ypc, 2 TDs), RB Dexter Williams (214 Rushing yards, 4 TDs, 10.7 ypc) and WR Equanimeous St. Brown (11 Receptions, 160 yards, TD) to get off to a good start on Offense and out to a lead of around 24-7 at Halftime, meaning backing the hosts in the 1st Half market seems smart (Notre Dame -12, BetOnline) and even backing Wimbush (4.71 40-yard Dash) and Notre Dame 1st Quarter may be worth a gander.

The Fighting Irish were 2-4 ATS as Home Favorites in 2016 (after a 5-1 ATS mark in 2015), and Notre Dame scored 49 points vs. both Temple and Boston College and then put 38 up on Michigan State in East Lansing in Week 4 (all Overs), so expect 30 or more from the Home team here in the first Fall Saturday Home game of the year.


Weather Forecast, Trends, Game Analysis

The current Weather forecast for South Bend on Saturday is calling for Clear skies, a Low of 41° with light and variable ESE 5 mph Winds, so a crisp Fall night for football in northwest corner of the Hoosier State and possibly good for the Under is the smallest way?

Looking at some Totals Trends, the Under is 9-4 the L13 Miami Ohio Road games overall, 5-1 the L5 Miami Ohio games on FieldTurf, 5-1 the L6 vs. a Team With a Winning Record, 6-1 L7 in September and 6-1 the L7 Non-Conference games. The Over is 5-1 the L6 Notre Dame games overall, 5-1 the L6 played in the month of September as well as 5-1 the L6 on FieldTurf and having Wimbush behind center sort of seems like a guard running the point in basketball at times meaning that Notre Dame (459.3 ypg Total Offense, #44) may evolve into an Over team with him at QB (3-1 Overs in 2016) and this group of Skill guys. The Irish are 6-8-1 ATS as 20+-point Favorites the L10 years.

With Wimbush, Adams (above), Williams and St. Brown, Notre Dame have a fab four of guys who can score Touchdowns at any given moment and the Fighting Irish have some depth on Offense at the vital Skill spots with players like RBs Deon McIntosh (59 yards, 3.7 ypc, TD) and Tony Jones Jr. (23 yards, 2 TDs) and WRs Alize Mack (11 Receptions, 116 yards, 10.5 ypc), Chase Claypool (7 Receptions, 80 yards, 11.4 ypc), Durham Smythe (4 Receptions, 88 yards, 22 ypc) and Cameron Smith (6 Receptions, 55 yards, 9.2 ypc) all trying to get their Playing Time, and looking good when they have been in. Notre Dame will be a very dangerous team for everyone that faces them from this point.

Predicted Final Score: Notre Dame 44, Miami (Ohio) 17NCAAF Free Pick: Irish -21 (& -12 First Half)Best Line Offered: Heritage

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