Favored Appalachian State is the College Football Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, October 27, 2014 6:38 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 6:38 PM UTC

Appalachian State has yet to beat a fellow FBS team at home since stepping up to this level this year, but look for that to change authoritatively vs. Georgia State on Saturday.


After posting their first win ever vs. an FBS school since joining the FBS themselves this year last week on the road, look for another double-digit win at home Saturday when the woeful Georgia State Panthers (1-7, 4-4 ATS) pay a visit to those Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-5, 2-5 ATS) at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, NC at 3:30 ET in a game available on ESPN3.

The posted line at Pinnacle Sports for this contest is Appalachian State -8 at current odds of -106.

Big Road Win at Troy
Prior to this season, the biggest claim to fame for Appalachian State was pulling off maybe the biggest upset in history when it went into Ann Arbor and upset Michigan while still in the FCS a few years ago. Well, the Mountaineers have now made the step up to the FBS level this season, and with their first win of the year coming over an FCS school in Campbell, they just recorded their first FBS win as an FBS school routing Troy on the road last week 53-14!

Meanwhile Georgia State joined the FBS last year and promptly went 0-12 overall. In fact the Panthers have yet to be a winning college football pick over a fellow FBS school since making the step up, and they are just one point away from being winless altogether as they had to rally to beat Abilene Christian of the FCS 38-37 on opening week of this season.

One of Worst FBS Teams
If you doubt that Georgia State is one of the worst teams in the entire FBS, consider that the Panthers were only four-point favorites over that FCS school and still failed to cover while barely avoiding the outright upset, and they have since lost another seven straight games, most recently losing at home by a 69-31 score to Georgia Southern last Saturday.

Sadly, defensive performances like that have been the norm for Georgia State, as the school is 120th in the country out of 128 FBS teams in total defense surrendering 499.4 total yards per game, 127th (or second to last) in rushing defense at 287.5 yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry and also 127th in points allowed at a whopping 43.6 per contest!

Meanwhile Appalachian State is ranked a respectable 36th nationally in total offense with 455.0 yards per game and an even better 23rd in rushing at 227.9 yards on 5.7 yards per carry, so that running game should have its way with the porous Georgia State run defense. And the Panthers simply lack the offense to compensate for giving up so many points, especially on the road where GSU averages just 24.0 points and 366.3 total yards.

Nicely Out-Gaining Foes at Home
The Mountaineers has an understandably slow start in their first season as an FBS member notwithstanding the fairly meaningless win over Campbell, but they finally put it all together last week on the road vs. one of the stalwarts of this Sun Belt Conference in Troy, and it was not a cheap win either as the 53-14 score was not a fluke based on Appalachian State outgaining the Trojans by 243 total yards while amassing 441 rushing yards on 54 carries!

Now, we are not usually on the habit of giving eight points with a team that is 2-5 and has just one FBS win, but the Mountaineers are facing an even worse defense here than they did at Troy, particularly the Georgia State rushing defense, and with rushing being the strong suit of the Appalachian offense and with the Mountaineers anxious to please their fans by finally beating an FBS school at home, it seems the ingredients are in place for a semi-blowout here.

And remember that while Appalachian State has does not have a home win over an FBS member, it is averaging a hefty 523.0 total yards per game here at Kidd Brewer Stadium where the defense is allowing a reasonable 392.7 yards by Sun Belt standards, so the home luck of the Mounties is bound to change eventually. They are now facing an opponent that they can take complete advantage of.

First Ever Meeting
Finally this is the first ever meeting between these schools, which makes sense considering that Georgia State just made the leap up to the FBS level itself last season in its winless campaign. Generally speaking, if two teams are unfamiliar with each other and one has the vast talent edge, that better team usually has the advantage.

We feel such is the case here so we expect Appalachian State to win handily by double-digits and cover the spread safely at home in Boone, NC on Saturday.

College Football Pick: Appalachian State -8 (-106)

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