What comes up must come down. After a breakout year in 2015, regression is on the horizon in Albuquerque. Read On As our handicapper provides his season betting preview.
New Mexico Lobos
Bob Davie enters his 5th year here. 7 wins last year, which was 3 more than any other year since he arrived in Albuquerque.
New Mexico has some positives like experienced quarterback play and returning 10 starters on defense. Although, the Lobos have a three-way QB controversy, with none of the contenders possessing both above average passing skills and rushing ability. The defense does return a large number of starters, but it also ranked 10th in the Mountain West Conference in terms of yards allowed.It is hard to be optimistic for The Lobos in the upcoming College Football Odds
Lose 3 of 5 starters on the offensive line. That includes losing their 3rd team all-conference center Eden Mahina.
Just this month, run game coordinator and offensive line coach Jason Lenzmeier has left his position with the Lobos. Reasons for Lenzmeier’s departure were not immediately clear. Lenzmeier spent the past four seasons at New Mexico, during which time the Lobos have ranked ninth (2015), fifth (2014), fourth (2013) and fifth (2012) in the country in rushing yards per game. Last year New Mexico tied a school record with 42 rushing touchdowns.
In the Mountain Division (Much tougher division in MWC): Lumped in with Boise, Air Force, Utah St. Colorado St.
Their cross-division opponents are Nevada and San Jose State from the West division. Both defenses have an improved defensive line especially SJSU, who beat New Mexico by 10 points last year.
The Rio Grande Rivalry is in Las Cruces this year, where New Mexico State always plays the Lobos tough. The rivalry game is immediately followed by a tough trip from Albuquerque to New Jersey to play Big Ten foe Rutgers in week 3.
October 29th starts a rough stretch traveling to Honolulu, then hosting Nevada (who is off a bye), followed by back to back road games at Utah St. and at Colorado St.
College Football Pick
The schedule sets up poorly for the Lobos in 2016, travel spanning from the east coast to Hawaii. Also, questions on the offensive line in a triple option attack as the unit’s coach departs abruptly. Plus, after a breakout year in 2015, regression to the mean is not factored in very much at all in the number. I see some value fading New Mexico this year.