Fade Auburn Over South Carolina for Week 9 College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 23, 2014 7:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2014 7:39 PM UTC

College Football's Week 9 Schedule holds quite the showdown between the South Carolina Gamecocks and Auburn Tigers. Where does the best value lie for our NCAAF picks?

My perception/reality games look to seek out value using teams who have fallen out of favor with the public and the linemaker against higher profile teams, who are overrated in the eyes of the public and linemaker. Just such a case presents itself with this SEC matchup of quality teams. Yet, it is the Auburn Tigers, under HC Malzahn, who played in last year’s National Championship game and started this season 5-0 SU who have caught the attention of the public. Let’s go inside the numbers to see why that has happened.

Beginning with Game 1 this season, it was apparent the S. Carolina defense was not up to its former standards. Playing on a strong home field where the Gamecocks had won 17 straight games, their defense, which had allowed under 20 PPG for the last 3 seasons combined, was laid to waste in a 52-28 trouncing by Texas A&M. Though the Gamecock defense has improved marginally since that time, they are still allowing 31 PPG and 421 YPG on 6.2 YP play. Still overrated, on the basis of 3 straight 11-2 SU seasons, S. Carolina has broken from the gate at just 4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS. They have also suffered defeats at the hands of Missouri and Kentucky. In so doing, this team has failed to cover the number by a net margin of 77 points. What chance, the public feels, with their 5.3 YPG defense against the steamrolling attack of Auburn, who averages 39 PPG on 262/5.6 overland. 

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The public thinking continues that surely this National Championship caliber team of Auburn will bounce back, with a week of rest, after their 38-23 loss to Mississippi St. Belief from this bureau is that, that Bubble Burst, following the 5-0 SU start, could well be cause for concern. That is particularly true at a price point that is at least 2 TDs from where the line would have been opening week. Furthering our case against this Tiger is the fact that after HC Malzahn was on a 13-0 ATS run, the Tigers hit their apogee, tumbling to an overpriced 1-3 ATS since that time. The explosive Tiger offense led by QB Marshall and the WR triplets of Williams, Bray and Coates are an appealing balance to the noted Auburn ground game. 

Never easy to fade a 200 Club team such as Auburn! But, the situation is right, considering the numbers for veteran SC HC Spurrier. I rarely fade Spurrier in league play, as he is one of the best in the business. That includes a record of 18-6 ATS as +6+ and 26-10 ATS on the road vs. con foe/loss. While the public salivates for the Tiger to bounce back off a loss with a week of rest, we will comfortably step in with the value, with a coach and team who has seen the underdog go a perfect 6-0 ATS in their games this season.

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Take a Look at the High/Low Spreads & Totals for Week 9 College Football Picks!

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