Fade Aggies Momentum & Cash this Winning College Football Pick Lining Up with Nevada +34

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 17, 2015 1:25 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 17, 2015 1:25 PM GMT

The lone ranger contrary college football pick for week 3 betting goes to the game between Nevada and Texas A&M in search of an outstanding opportunity for a pointspread victory.

Each week in this space, I isolate the CFB lone ranger contrary play of the week.  It is a blend of statistical, situational and technical analysis that will result in an outstanding opportunity for a pointspread victory.  Here is this week’s winning College Football Pick, that puts the Odds greatly in your favor to cash this ticket.

 

Nevada vs. Texas A&M (-34)
In this very space last week, we came away with a pointspread winner with Hawaii (+40) in their improbable cover vs. Ohio St. You, me and the lone ranger were the only ones to cash that winning ticket. Today’s play on Nevada looks just as improbable and as contrary. We need to go no further than my article of the week entitled “A Primer on Using the AFP as Contrary Indicator” to isolate the value in this game. 
 
Under 4th year HC Sumlin, there has been little question about the success of the Aggies’ offense.  Whether it has been record setting QB Johnny Manziel or this year’s current QB Kyle Allen, the Aggies’ offense has run smooth as a top.  Even if the A&M 2nd stringer, QB Murray, should take the reins, there figures to be little drop off from the offensive side of the ball.  Witness their 2-0 SU ATS start, in which they have defeated Arizona St. (38-17) and Ball St. (56-23).  In so doing, they have covered the number by 23 points setting them up for the first half of our AFP equation.  The real reason for the ATS success, however, could be attributed to the defensive side of the ball.  In the previous 2 seasons, the Aggies allowed a combined 30 PPG and 463 YPG, fielding play against 200 club defenses in both years. Out with DC Snyder and in with highly-respected DC Chavis!  Nonetheless, it is a bit troublesome for A&M that they still allowed Ball St. to run for 240 yards last week.  As easy as it is to play the Texas A&M momentum, remember that this game is sandwiched between that 2-0 SU ATS beginning and 6 consecutive SEC games on the slate ahead.
 
The other half of our AFP equation comes with the Nevada Wolfpack, who is off to a 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS start under 3rd year HC Pollian.  Despite 13 RS, Nevada is a largely inexperienced team.  One of the major issues with their lack of experience is the loss of 4 year starting QB Fajardo.  The Wolfpack did have a confidence-building start in Week 1, when they outlasted Cal-Davis (31-17). That included a 232-89 overland edge against the Aggies in their failure to cover the 24-point impost by 10 points.  Last week, Nevada returned home to face an angry Arizona team as 11 point home dog.  They were “200 Clubbed” by the Wildcats who put up 570 total yards in a 44-20 victory in which they covered by 13 points. That sets up the 2nd half of our AFP equation, as the Wolfpack is now (-27) total AFP. 
 
To remind you once again of the theory, we look to “ play any team with an ATS record of .500 or less and a negative AFP of 20 or more, if they are playing an opponent who has a .500 or better ATS record and a positive AFP of 20 or more.  The sum of the net AFP differential should be 50 or more.”  To confirm our theory, we look for value in the betting line, if this week’s line is 7 or more points than the projected opening line in Week 1. Considering that this pointspread may have been little more than 2 TDs opening week, we are looking at the biggest value take on this week’s card.  Yet, no one but you, me and the Lone Ranger will be lining up with the Wolfpack this week … just like when we cashed our Hawaii ticket last Saturday afternoon.

College Football Pick: Take Nevada (+34) at 5Dimes

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