Expert NCAA Football Picks For Florida State vs Miami

Florida State Seminoles

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 7, 2016 4:32 PM GMT

Each week, Joe Gavazzi isolates an underdog of less than a TD who he believes has the ability to outright win. This week he takes a look at the  Florida St vs Miami matchup for his College Football pick.

 

Florida St. at Miami (-3) 8:00 ET 

For those of you who heeded the advice of last week’s article entitled The CFB Double Rushers and the 200 Club, you profited handsomely with Saturday’s selections that went 6-2 ATS. Selections on this site are now 29-17 ATS with more winners on tap for this weekend. If you enjoyed last week’s article, then you will be sure to read this week’s NFL article called 2016 NFL Teams Run to the Bank. There you will read about NFL situations that provide 85% ATS winners, along with bonus situations that are 93% and 100% ATS this year in the NFL. Enjoy the winners.

Miami, FL has combined 15 RS, including 9 on offense behind QB Kaaya, along with 1st year HC Richt, to bolt to a 4-0 SU ATS start, in which they have covered the number by a combined 54 points. Before you get too excited, note that those first 3 blowouts were against Florida A&M, Florida Atl. and App St. Following an OPEN date, they defeated GA Tech 35-21. But, that victory was a bit tainted, considering they were outrushed by the Jackets 267-114 and profited handsomely from a (+3) net TO margin, including 2 fumble recoveries for TDs. Now, they must face a Florida St. team, who has beaten them 6 consecutive years (by a combined 81 points) on a wrong week.

On September 17th, Florida St. suffered a crushing defeat at Louisville (63-20).  The next week, they responded by blasting USF (55-35) rolling up 647 yards. Last week, the Sems returned home, whereas 11 point home chalk, despite 200 clubbing N. Carolina, they lost on a last-play FG (37-35), snapping their 22-game home winning streak. At 2-3 ATS, they have failed to cover by a net 45 points, setting this up as a (-99) net AFP play with the value of more than a TD from where the opening line would have been. Defensive injuries are a concern for sure for this Seminole team, who has allowed 34 or more points to the 4 FBS teams they have faced and an average of more than 500 YPG in their last 3 games.  

With the combination of series dominance and playing off a loss, along with incredible line value, makes this a must play as the PUP OF THE WEEK! I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Florida St tonight.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

 

Free College Football Pick: Florida St. +135
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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