Expert NCAA Football Pick - Week 8 - Washington State Cougars vs Arizona State Sun Devils

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 20, 2016 8:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016 8:00 PM UTC

It's a Pac 12 Slobberknocker, and this is the type of game that our capper Joe Gavazzi is an expert. Week  sees the Washing State Cougars vs Arizona State Sun Devils, and you know Joe has NCAAF pick. 

 Washington St. (-7-) vs Arizona St. 10:00 ET 

Each week in this spot, I isolate a Rivalry Game in which I feel one team has a decided advantage, based on a combination of historical, situational or technical merit. These games have gone 5-2 ATS for over 70% winners this season to date. 

The Washington St. Cougars, who are 4-2 ATS for the season and a perfect 3-0 SU in PAC 12 play, travel to Arizona St. to face a Sun Devil team who is 5-2 SU for the year, but just 2-2 SU in conference action. The fact Washington St. enters on a 4-game winning streak, in which they have covered the number in the last 5 games by a net of a 83 points, has pushed this line to a TD favorite in a game where Arizona St. would have been the chalk at the start of the year.  We gladly step in to take the value, knowing that it will be Death in the Desert for the Pullman Puma who is a long way from their home of the Plains of the Palouse in E. Washington tonight.

Under 5th year HC Leach, the Cougars turned things around last year with a 9-4 SU, 10-2 ATS mark. This season, with a continually improving defense, the Cougars are rolling once again behind the Air-Raid offense led by QB Falk. Under Leach, the Cougars are now 13-3 ATS on the run, including 8-1 ATS on the road. That success, however, has led them to road favoritism for just the 2nd time in their last 42 conference road outings. Once again, the AFP number has worked its magic in providing us with great value. Combined with a strong home field advantage, it will lead to this upset.  

I am well aware that Arizona St. has been allowing an inordinate amount of passing yards the last 2 seasons. To be exact, 338 PYPG last year and at least 366 or more PY in 5/7 games this season. It would appear that defense is perfectly suited for the Air-Raid attack. The truth, however, is that when Arizona St. faced the Air-Raid clone offenses of Texas Tech and California earlier in the season, they emerged with victories of 68-55 against the Red Raiders and 51-41 against the Golden Bears. They were favored in both of those contests and now get the advantage of this 7 point impost. Those 2 home victories were all a part of a 4-0 SU ATS home record by the Sun Devils, who have now won and covered 6 straight games on this field.  Like I said, it is Death in the Desert for the Cougars tonight. I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Arizona St. tonight.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Free College Football Pick: Arizona St. +7.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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