East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Pirates, Bearcats in AAC Clash
Check out our top picks for Friday night's AAC clash between East Carolina and Cincinnati. The Bearcats enter the week second in the conference, while the Pirates are hanging onto fifth place.
The East Carolina Pirates have won four of their last five games, with three of the team's four wins coming against AAC opponents. The Pirates are averaging 32.3 points per game, and they've scored in single digits just once this season.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are 4-1 in conference play, with their sole loss coming at UCF in Week 9. That was one of just two games they've played against conference opponents with winning records.
Here are our East Carolina-Cincinnati college football picks for Week 11 (odds via BetMGM and PointsBet; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our top college football picks for Week 11, as well as our top upset picks and parlay!
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Game Info
Date: Friday, Nov. 11, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Weather: 31 degrees, 16% chance of precipitation, 9-mph winds
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Odds
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Analysis
Cincinnati opened as a 7-point favorite but that line has dropped to -4 with 65% of the tickets accounting for 66% of the handle wagered on the spread.
The Over/Under dropped from the consensus opening line of 53.5 to 52 as of Friday morning. However, this seems to be reverse line movement with 76% of the tickets accounting for 73% of the handle on the Over.
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Picks
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati ATS Pick
East Carolina +5.5 (-110) ★★★
Two of the Pirates' three losses in 2022 have come against ranked opponents. They've won three straight games, and their triumph over UCF is the Golden Knights' only conference loss of the campaign.
The Bearcats coasted through a relatively easy schedule before losing to UCF. Cincinnati is undefeated at home in 2022, but they're just 1-3 against the spread. The school earned a 10-point victory as 18.5-point favorites. And the Bearcats notched a four-point win over USF as 27-point favorites earlier in the season.
The Pirates are 6-3 against the spread, and their offense is putting up 467.2 yards per game. They'll face a test in the Bearcats’ defense, but the team should score enough during a low-scoring affair to cover.
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati O/U Pick
Under 52.5 (-110) ★★★
Only one of the Bearcats’ conference games has gone above this total, and that happened on the road against SMU. The Bearcats still held the Mustangs to 27 points, and the total ended at just 56. Cincinnati is coughing up 21 points per game, but the school hasn't allowed a team to score 30-plus points since its season-opening loss to Arkansas.
Meanwhile, the Pirates’ offense tends to play to its competition. The squad doesn't struggle while racking up points against teams like Memphis and South Florida, but the Pirates limped along against Tulane and Navy. However, East Carolina has scored 20-plus points in all but one game in 2022.
But this game still comes with the makings of a defensive slugfest between two teams that put a greater emphasis on that side of the ball.
East Carolina vs. Cincinnati Prop Pick
First-half Under 25.5 points (-115) ★★★
While the Pirates have been prone to giving up a lot of points early in games, the Bearcats’ defense is going to dictate the pace of play early and make this a low-scoring contest. When the Bearcats lost to UCF, they trailed just 10-6 at halftime. And Cincinnati led 13-3 over Navy at the break.
The Pirates did most of their scoring against BYU in the first half, but they're unlikely to put up 17 against Cincinnati over the first 30 of this one. East Carolina is fine with playing slow when facing defensive-minded teams.
The school's most comparable game to this one in 2022 was against Tulane. The score at halftime was 14-9.
Where to Bet on East Carolina-Cincinnati Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
East Carolina-Cincinnati picks made 11/8/2022 at 3:48 p.m. ET
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