The opening Offshore sportsbook Point Spreads for College Football Week 10 were released on Sunday afternoon and there was fair movement in the first several hours of betting, with one game moving 3½ points and another 4 after we witnessed at least four games moving 5 points or more a week ago in early Week 9 trading in the same time span.
Looking at the NCAA Football Week 10 odds after the first initial wave of Sharp betting on Sunday for a couple of hours before the numbers and after some of the lines really settled in, we saw heavier action on Underdogs this Sunday and less drastic point-swing Movement than past weeks with two of the largest Movers being a 4-point move in the Auburn-Texas A&M game (AUB -11 to -15) and a 3½-point Move on Florida International money moving its game with UTSA down from an opening UTSA -6½ down 3½ points to -3 (BetOnline) for their Conference USA clash at Ocean Bank Field at FIU Stadium on Saturday. So, less big movement for now at least in the Sides market for Week 10. In Week 9, early Sharp money on Toledo, Boston College and Florida Atlantic all proved to be really smart money in NCAA Week 9 while the early Utah (at Oregon) and Wisconsin money proved to be a dud as the Badgers ate clock like pumpkin pie during the 2nd Half at Illinois on Saturday after getting out to a 17-3 Halftime lead en route to a 24-10 win (WIS -29½, BookMaker).
And anyone watching aerially-challenged Wisconsin at Illinois knows there is a great difference in talent between the Badgers extremely overrated number in the latest Coaches Poll (No. 4 ) and that #7 Penn State—1-point losers to #3 Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus in a Big ten showdown on Saturday afternoon in the game of the weekend—is probably at least 8 points better than Wisconsin (197.0 ypg Passing, #88) in a game played at a Neutral Site. Being able to pass in College and the NFL is paramount, especially if behind double-digits in the 2nd Half, and QB Alex Hornibrook (10-19, 135 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 25.4 ADJ QB RAT vs ILL) and the Badgers looked way off against the Fighting Illini in Champaign despite the Final Score and gusty weather and uptick we’ll see in some rankings. The Badgers are more like a (ranking No.) #10-20 team, and far from a Top 10 side and may only be the 4th-best team in their Big Ten conference. The ability to Pass always matters.
Here are some of the bigger early (Side) NCAA Football games for Week 10 games which saw Point Spread moves of 3 points or more after Open on Sunday (October 29) from Point Spread with analysis of three of the bigger Line Movement games. Underdogs went 27-26-3 ATS in Week 9 and Overs finally had a fair week in the Totals market, going 30-26 overall (53.6%) for our college football picks.
NCAAF Early Movers
Tuesday, October 31, 2017Bowling Green (1-7 SU/ATS) opened up PK (BetOnline), and saw enough action to move the opening number up 3 points quickly to make the Falcons 3-point Favorites before settling back to 2½ and the down to 1½ for their Tuesday night MACtion at Kent State (ESPN2, 8 pm ET/5 pm PDT) and Dix Stadium (FieldTurf) in Kent, Ohio in the first game of the NCAA Football Week 10 betting rotation. The Sharps must have been looking past the Site and to the stronger team with the solid Defense (12 TDs allowed, Tied #3) who will probably just win the game outright, and the Trends back that train of thought with Bowling Green 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings against Kent State, including a 42-7 romp as 2½-point Home Underdogs last season in MAC East Divisional play. So some series recency bias may also be at work here, with the Wiseguys figuring that if the Falcons could beat the Golden Flashes by 35 last season at Home, then they could probably beat them by 2 on the Road this season.
So, simple logic may turn out to be profitable and the few at Open who may have got Bowling Green PK and Bowling Green -1 may have gotten “the best of it” and put themselves in a position where a Hedge may be worth employing or a Middle is a possibility, already a theoretical reality for a bettor who may have got Bowling Green at PK 0r -1 and then bought back quickly on Kent State (+3) when the Point Spread rose to 3 for a few moments, meaning a 2- or 1-point Falcons win here might create that Middle. Logic says it’s probably more of a blowout than a close game. Fading the Golden Flashes (3-5 ATS in) definitely isn’t a hard thing to do (10-18-1 ATS L2+ seasons). There seem like better games this week than this Rat-fest, but lean Green.
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Host Louisiana Tech opened -6 (BetOnline) against North Texas, and were bet down 3 points quickly to -3 on North Texas money before (possibly) settling back up at LT minus) 3½ for their Week 10 Conference-USA meeting with North Texas on Saturday from Joe Aillet Stadium (FieldTurf) from Ruston, Louisiana (FACEBOOK LIVE, 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT). So why? The Bulldogs (4-4 SU/ATS) are at Home and are 4-1-1 ATS the L6 in this series against the Mean Green so perhaps the Sharps were just underdog-savvy here and thinkk 6, 5, and even 4 points are too many to give visiting North Texas (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) who come in SU winners in 5 of its L6 but who have also L2 straight ATS (L 69-31 @ FAU as 3½ Road Dogs, W 45-38 vs. ODU but failed to cover ATS as 11-point Home Chalks).
With the Bulldogs and QB J’mar Smith (1,960 passing yards) 2-2 in C-USA play and looking to get above the .500 mark and stay in the race and evolving North Texas 4-1 in C-USA, the early money also probably thinks the Mean Green have a decent chance of winning this game outright, something that hasn’t happened since the 2013 Regular Season when North Texas beat Louisiana Tech, 28-13 at Home Ruston as 3-point Road Underdogs. It seems like a shootout could evolve in this one with Louisiana Tech (9-5 ATS as Home Favorites L3 seasons) wanting to stay alive and also not be embarrassed at Home by North Texas. This game will really reveal how far the Mean Green have come as a program.
Saturday, November 4, 2017
Arizona State (4-4 SU/ATS) opened up 4-point chalks against Colorado (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS), were wagered up 3 points to -7 +105 (BetOnline) and then settled back down to 4 after some Colorado buyback around 9 pm ET Sunday night for their Week 10 game from Sun Devil Stadium (Grass) in Tempe on Saturday in Pac-12 play (PAC 12 NETWORK, 9 pm ET/6 pm PT). The series Trends show the Sun Devils are 6-2 ATS the L8 against the Buffaloes, so the Sharps probably like that along with some perceived regression for Phillip Lindsay and Colorado which went an impressive 10-4 SU in 2016 under now 5th-year Head Coach Mark MacIntyre (28-26-2 ATS). Hard to opine if this is perceived smart money with the line where it started and maybe those grabbing the Buffaloes +7 for that brief instance it hit that plateau made the best bets in this quick and short time window. Arizona State are 4-1 ATS L5 but were crushed by USC in Week 9, 38-17, losing ATS as modest 4½-point Home Underdogs with that particular result ending a string of 4 straight Sun Devils Unders (ASU Unders 6-2 on season). The Under is worth consideration here.
Other NCAAF Week 10 Early Movers
Saturday, November 4, 2017
- #19 AUBURN opened -11 -115 (BetOnline) vs A&M, bet up 4 points to -15
- #2 PENN STATE opened -13 at #16 Michigan State, bet down 2 points to -11
- VANDERBILT opened -11 vs WKU, bet down 1½ to -9½ then back up to -11½ later
- FLORIDA STATE opened -5 -105 vs Syracuse, bet down 2½ to -2½ -105
- NEW MEXICO STATE opened -11½ vs. TEXAS STATE, bet down 2 to -9½, then up to -11
- NEBRASKA opened -1 vs NU, NU bet to -1 Faves, then Nebraska back to -2½ (BM)
- #9 Notre Dame opened -15½ vs Wake Forest, bet down 2½ to -13
- TULANE opened -9 vs Cincinnati, bet down 2 to -7 -105
- UT San Antonio opened -6½ at FIU, bet down 3½ points to -3 -105
- FRESNO STATE opened -11 -115 (BOL) vs Byu, bet up 2½ points to -13½
All Saturday games in Board rotation order with HOME TEAMS in CAPS
Click here for current Offshore NCAAF Week 10 sportsbook odds from SBRodds.com
NCAAF WEEK 10 CURRENT HIGHEST SPREAD—Washington -26½ vs. Oregon (Heritage)
BIGGEST CURRENT MOVER—AUBURN 4-point move up Open 11 to 15 vs. Texas A&M
FAVORITE-FLIP THEN-RE-FLIP—NEBRASKA opened -1 vs Northwestern, went to +1, now -2½ (BookMaker)