Early Value Found In College Football Week 5 Predictions

Ohio State players getting ready to play

Kevin Stott

Monday, September 26, 2016 6:38 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 26, 2016 6:38 PM GMT

With Patrick Mahomes and JT Barrett, up-tempo Texas Tech and #2 Ohio State should both score over 60 points at home. Let’s look at these two potential blowouts and offer up some chalky early week perceived value NCAAF picks.

Thursday-Friday Slate
There has been plenty of early line movement Sunday night and Monday morning on the NCAA Football Week 5 betting board, even with three of the four Thursday-Friday games. The week’s lidlifter on Thursday, Kansas at Texas Tech is the one which hasn’t moved of it’s opening number and that’s maybe where some value is to be had. Texas Tech (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has scored 69, 55 and 59 points in three games and is 5-2 ATS the L7 against Kansas (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), which has gone 1-14 SU—3-57 SU L60 Conference games—and 3-12-1 ATS in its L15 games.

The perceived value here is getting QB Patrick Mahomes and the Red Raiders (5-0 ATS L5 on FieldTurf) at -28 and fading Kansas (9-27-1 ATS L37 Road) as most of the later general public money should be on the home chalks, likely driving this number closer to 3. In the L2 meetings, Texas Tech (7-2 ATS L9 Home) has led at Halftime, 20-0 and 17-7. 


Free NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech -28
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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The other three games offer their own value or ATS dilemmas. Beginning with UConn at #6 Houston (HOU -28½ at 5Dimes) being hit so hard early from the Sharps (23 to 28½), that all of the value has been sapped. On Friday, Toledo is at BYU (-3½ +100 at BetOnline) and backing the Rockets is hard now as the point spread has moved down from +4½ while backing the Cougars is tough as Toledo has been the best ATS team in NCAA since 2015 (12-2-1, 67.2%) with BYU (12-5-0 ATS) also pretty good. A good one to watch. And we previewed the big #7 Stanford--#10 Washington Pac-12 showdown (WAS -3 at JustBet)  suggesting backing Wazoo at -3 at Husky Stadium on Friday night.          


Saturday’s Schedule
Scouring the Week 5 board for some value and an ATS winner and the Rutgers vs. #2 Ohio State (OSU -38½, at 5Dimes) matchup at Columbus seems worth consideration—as does a 1st Half bet—despite the scary piles of lumber. The Buckeyes (29-14 ATS L43 October) and JT Barrett have faced the Scarlet Knights twice lately since Rutgers (3-7 ATS L10 Overall and on FieldTurf), joined the Big 10, rolling 49-7 last season in New Brunswick (OSU -23½) and 56-17 when they met here at Ohio Stadium in 2014 (OSU -20½)


Free NCAAF Pick: Ohio State -38½ 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
NCAAF Regular Season Picks Record: 5-3-0

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