Early Saturday Value Plays: How Might Irma Affect Betting Value?

Willie Bee

Friday, September 8, 2017 7:53 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 8, 2017 7:53 PM UTC

College football is once again being forced to deal with a hurricane, and Florida State is hoping to use that to its advantage as big favorites on the NCAA football odds in Week 2.

It hasn’t been a good week for Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State Seminoles. Last Saturday’s 24-7 setback to Alabama in Atlanta was compounded by quarterback Deondre Francois’s knee injury that will sideline him for the rest of the season, and like everyone else in the Sunshine State this week, the threat of Hurricane Irma looms.

A decision has already been made to shift the kickoff for this week’s game against Louisiana Monroe from the evening to noon (ET), the same decision the Florida Gators – also a Week 1 loser -- were prompted to make for their contest against Northern Colorado. Even with their starting QB lost, the Seminoles remain big 33½ point favorites at Bookmaker, 53 listed as the total for the Tallahassee tilt.

Freshman James Blackman takes over under center for FSU with redshirt junior JJ Cosentino serving as his backup. Blackman won the No. 2 job behind Francois with an outstanding summer camp, and has impressed Fisher this week running the 1st-team offense in practice. The good news is he won’t have to get his feet wet against a defense like Alabama imposed last Saturday, and his mobility should allow Blackman to improvise. The hurricane will be in the backs of everyone’s mind on both sides of the field Saturday, but the value here is still on the ‘Noles who should bounce back from the loss to the Crimson Tide with a big score.


Can Maize & Blue Avoid Letdown After Win Over Gators?

The team that beat Florida last Saturday was Michigan as the Wolverines put on a defensive clinic in the 33-17 victory down in Texas. Jim Harbaugh’s stop unit only allowed the Gators to score three points, their only two touchdowns coming on Pick 6’s. This week finds the Maize & Blue back home in Ann Arbor for a Bloody Mary kickoff to help get the day rolling, ABC televising their matchup with Cincinnati. The Wolverines are -34 to -34½ with the total dropping a point from the opener to 48½.

The unsettled QB situation at Florida no doubt helped Michigan’s defense which held the Gators to 192 total yards – only 11 on the ground – and came away with six sacks. Wilton Speight’s two interceptions made the final look closer than the game really was, and the 6-6 senior will have to do better in that department. Again, it’s a lot of points to lay, but I simply don’t see how the Bearcats, who just managed to beat Austin Peay, scoring enough to stay iunside the number. I like the value on Michigan for my free college football pick.

 Hawkeyes & Cyclones Renew Rivalry In Ames

It should be a nice afternoon in Ames for the 65th meeting between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones. ESPN2 will carry the game from Jack Trice Stadium beginning at noon (ET), and while the NCAA football odds range4 from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3, it’s unanimous across the board with 48 for the total.

Both teams won and covered last week, the Hawkeyes taking down Wyoming while the Cyclones topped Northern Iowa. Iowa owns a commanding 42-22 advantage in the rivalry and has won three of the last four, but the Hawkeye are just 6-13 ATS the past two decades. The value here is on the scoreboard where the ‘under’ has cashed nine of the last 12 meetings, and will once again.

Season: 6-4 (+1.60)

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