Early Line Movement Week 14 Topped by ACC Title Game

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 27, 2017 2:45 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 27, 2017 2:45 PM UTC

Let’s look at the early movement from this week's conference championship games and then offer up some perceived value-oriented early week picks where they seem warranted.

Because there are so many fewer games and so little actual perceived big movement in the opening lines for the Conference championship games this coming College Football week, let’s take a special thumbnail sketch mini-preview look at all of the Conference championship Games, including the opening Point Spreads from BetOnline, the current numbers — including the Totals — the Trends and picks if they seem justified.

UL Monroe and Florida State will be playing a rescheduled makeup Non-Conference game from Doak Campbell Stadium (Grass) in Tallahassee on Saturday (12 pm ET) in a game which will be seeing the ACC's Seminoles as 26½- to 27-point Home Favorites against the Sun Belt Conference’s Warhawks. The game was originally scheduled for Week 2, but Hurricane Irma forced this rescheduling and with a victory, Florida State (5-6 SU) will actually become Bowl-eligible, so deciding to actually play this game seems like a very wise decision for the host Seminoles.

All five of the Power Five FBS conferences will be holding their title tilts this coming weekend as will smaller conferences like the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference. The Sun Belt Conference will also be playing in Week 14 with five games on the docket to end those schools’ Regular Season schedules, including UL Lafayette at Appalachian State, Troy at Arkansas State, Idaho at Georgia State, Georgia State at Coastal Carolina and South Alabama at New Mexico State while Conference USA side FIU hosts Independent UMass.

The four biggest games of NCAA Football Week 14 in the context of the 2018 CFP Playoffs will be taking place in the Atlantic Coast (Clemson-Miami Florida), Big Ten (Wisconsin-Ohio State), Big 12 (Oklahoma-TCU) and the Southeastern (Auburn-Georgia) conferences with the Pac-12 Conference title tilt winner (Stanford-USC) and the AAC’s unbeaten UCF (11-0) seemingly already out of the playoff picture, unfair or not.

And even with both (CFP ranking and soon-to-be-changing-on-Tuesday) #1 Alabama and #2 Miami losing in Week 13, it sure seems that Bryce Love and the Cardinal and/or the Golden Knights could definitely hang with any of these teams remaining right now, with Auburn and Wisconsin probably playing the best overall football at this point on the calendar. It’s obvious we need eight teams in this thing fellas. Here are thumbnail sketches for the NCAA Football games for Week 14 Conference Championships as well as the Sun Belt Regular Season finale games, FSU-ULM and UMass-FIU with the early (Sunday) Line Movement indicated from Offshore sportsbooks:

Friday, December 1

Pac-12 Conference Championship Game (#11 USC vs. #14 Stanford)

Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA, ESPN, 8 pm ET

North Division Winner: Stanford (9-3 SU, 7-2 in Pac-12)

South Division Winner: USC (10-2 SU, 8-1 in Pac-12)

Opening Point Spread: USC -3 -110 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: USC -3 -105 (Heritage)

Line Movement: Only minimal juice movement

Total Open: 57 — Total Current: 58 (BetOnline) — Total Movement: 1 point up

Series Trends: Under 6-2 L8 (Under 6-1 L7 Oklahoma Neutral Site)

Game Link: USC-Stanford Pac-12 Conference Championship Game link

Saturday, December 2

ACC Championship Game (#1 Clemson vs. #7 Miami Florida)

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, ABC, 8:07 pm ET

Atlantic Division Winner: Clemson (11-1 SU, 7-1 in ACC)

Coastal Division Winner: Miami Florida (10-1 SU, 7-1 in ACC)

Opening Point Spread: Clemson -6½ -105 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: Clemson -10 +105 (5Dimes)

Line Movement: 3½ Points on Clemson money

Total Open: 48 — Total Current: 48 — Total Movement: None yet

Series Trends: Clemson 4-1 ATS L5, Over 4-0 L4

Game Link: Clemson-Miami Florida ACC Championship Game link

Saturday, December 2

Big Ten Championship Game (#3 Wisconsin vs. #8 Ohio State)

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, FOX, 8 pm ET

East Division Winner: Ohio State (10-2 SU, 8-1 in Big Ten)

West Division Winner: Wisconsin (12-0 SU, 9-0 in Big Ten)

Opening Point Spread: Ohio State -6½ -125 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: Ohio State -5½

Line Movement: 1 Point on Wisconsin money

Total Open: 53½ — Total Current: 53½ — Total Movement: None yet

Series Trends: Ohio State 6-2-1 ATS L9, Underdogs 12-3-1 ATS L16

Game Link: Wisconsin-Ohio State Big Ten Championship Game link

Saturday, December 2

Big 12 Conference Championship Game (#2 Oklahoma vs. #10 TCU)

AT&T Stadium, Arlington, FOX, 12:30 pm ET

1st Place: Oklahoma (11-1 SU, 8-1 in Big 12)

2nd Place: TCU (7-2 SU, 10-2 in Big 12)

Opening Point Spread: Oklahoma -6 -110 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: Oklahoma -7 -105 (Heritage)

Line Movement: 1 Point on Oklahoma money

Total Open: 61½ — Total Current: 62½ (BetOnline) — Total Movement: 1 point up

Series Trends: Under 6-2 L8 (Under 6-1 L7 Oklahoma Neutral Site)

Game Link: Oklahoma-TCU Big 12 Conference Championship Game link

Saturday, December 2

Southeastern Conference Championship Game (#4 Auburn vs. #6 Georgia)

Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, CBS, 4 pm ET

East Division Winner: Georgia (11-1 SU, 7-1 in SEC)

West Division Winner: Auburn (10-2 SU, 7-1 in SEC)

Opening Point Spread: Auburn -2½ -110 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: Auburn -3 +100 (Pinnacle)

Line Movement: Half Point on Auburn money

Total Open: 51 — Total Current: 50½— Total Movement: half point down

Series Trends: Over 16-7 L23 meetings

Game Link: Auburn--Georgia SEC Championship Game link

Saturday, December 2

American Athletic Conference Championship Game (#12 UCF vs. #16 Memphis)

Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, ABC, 12 pm ET

East Division Winner: Central Florida (11-0 SU, 8-0 in AAC)

West Division Winner: Memphis (10-1 SU, 7-1 in AAC)

Opening Point Spread: UCF -7½ -105 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: UCF -7

Line Movement: Half Point on Memphis money

Total Open: 81 — Total Current: 83 — Total Movement: 2 points up

Series Trends: Under 4-1-1 L6, Memphis 0-5 ATS L5 @ UCF, Home Team 6-0 ATS L6

Game Link: UCF-Memphis AAC Conference championship Game link

Saturday, December 2

Mid-American Conference Championship Game (Toledo vs. Akron)

Ford Field, Detroit, ESPN, 12 pm ET

East Division Winner: Akron (7-5 SU, 6-2 in MAC)

West Division Winner: Toledo (9-2 SU, 6-1 in MAC)

Opening Point Spread: Toledo -18 -110 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: Toledo -20

Line Movement: 2 Points on Toledo money

Total Open: 54 — Total Current: 54½ — Total Movement: half point up (JustBet)

Series Trends: Toledo 7-3 ATS L10 meetings, Favorites 7-3 ATS L10 meetings

Game Link: Akron-Toledo Mid-American Conference Championship game link

Saturday, December 2

Conference USA Championship Game (North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic)

FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL, ABC, 12 pm ET

East Division Winner: Florida Atlantic (8-3 SU, 7-0 in C-USA)

West Division Winner: North Texas (8-3 SU, 6-1 in C-USA)

Opening Point Spread: Florida Atlantic-8½ -110 (BetOnline)

Current Highest Spread: Florida Atlantic -10½

Line Movement: 2 Points on FAU money

Total Open: 74½ — Total Current: 74½ — Total Movement: None yet

Series Trends: Under 4-1 L5, Home Team 4-0 ATS L4 (Game at FAU)

Game Link: North Texas-FAU Conference USA Championship Game link

FIU opened -1 vs Massachusetts, up 1 point to -2 (BookMaker)

NEW MEXICO STATE opened -7½ vs South Alabama, up 2½ points to -10

ARKANSAS STATE opened -1 vs Troy, up ½ point to -1½

FLORIDA STATE opened -27 vs UL Monroe, down ½ to -26½

APPALACHIAN STATE opened -16 vs UL Lafayette, down ½ point to -15½

Arkansas State opened -10 at UL MONROE, down 2 points to -8

Free NCAAF Pick: Stanford +3, Florida Atlantic -10½, Toledo -19½Best Lines Offered: BetOnline
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