Early Lean on GA Southern as the College Football Pick Over Texas State

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, October 26, 2015 3:14 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 26, 2015 3:14 PM UTC

For our NCAAF blowout game of the week, we will preview the betting odds for Texas State vs. Georgia Southern Thursday night game. Ride the winning bus with this free college football pick!

Texas State vs. GeorgiaSouthern (-21) 7:30PM ET ESPNU
Texas State travels to Georgia Southern for this Thursday Night Sun Belt Showcase game. Actually, that came last Thursday night when the Georgia Southern Eagles traveled to App St. to face the Mountaineers for Sun Belt supremacy. As analyzed, App. State used their strong home field, their superior defense and a balanced attack to wear down the Eagles (31-13). This gives full motivation for a Georgia Southern team, as they must now sweep the Sun Belt board (easily favored to do so). On Saturday, Texas State hosted South Alabama. They emerged with a (36-18) victory as (-3) despite being outgained in the contest 468-424.  

Now, Texas State must travel to Statesboro on a short week. Under 5th year HC Franchione, the Bobcats are making solid progress. That is especially true on the offensive side of the ball, where they are averaging 35 PPG on 445 YPG. Their real issues will come with their continuing poor play on the defensive side of the ball. Last year, with just 4 defensive starters returning, the Bobcats allowed 446 YPG including 203/4.7 overland. Again this season, with only 5 starters returning, that shoddy defense is a major reason why this team is just 2-4 SU ATS. For the season, Texas State is allowing 44 PPG including at least 259 YPG, both running and passing. Against the rush, the Bobcats allow 259/5.6.  That defense will be in the wrong place at the wrong time when facing a Georgia Southern team coming off a loss! 

For, the Eagles have been at their best in this role. Last year, following a (24-23) opening game loss at NC State, Georgia Southern rebounded with an (83-9) win vs. Savanah. After a (42-38) loss to Georgia Tech, they beat South Alabama (as -2) 28-6. This year, Georgia Southern lost opening weekend at WVU. The next week they returned home as 5 point underdog to blast Western Michigan (43-17). That was the first of 5 consecutive wins and covers which has seen them run for between 383 YPG and 507 RYPG. After being held to 188 RYPG, you can be assured that the best running game in the country, averaging 369/6.9, will be ready to roll against the outmanned Texas State defensive front.  

Short rest for the traveling Bobcats, who are off a satisfying win, combines with an angry Geogia Southern team off an embarrassing loss to join with the fundamentals which can only have this result in your Thursday night college football pick as the blowout of the year. To ensure value, put the college football odds in your favor by getting down early!

College Football Pick: Georgia Southern -21 at Heritage

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