Duke to Upset #25 Miami Hurricanes

Steven Suarez

Thursday, November 14, 2013 5:10 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 14, 2013 5:10 PM UTC

We've found another matchup where we think the underdog is worth a small money-line wager. Find out where we believe the college football betting is hiding.

Odds Overview

The Blue Devils are three-point underdogs at home for this huge game against the Hurricanes. We find a high NCAAF odds total of 61.5.

Both teams are 7-2 SU on the season, while Duke is 7-2 ATS and Miami is 4-5 ATS.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

It's been a painful couple of weeks for the Hurricanes, who've lost consecutive games to Florida State (41-14) and Virginia Tech (42-24). 

Against the Hokies, QB Stephen Morris did everything he could to give his team in the game. He was 16-of-29 for 324 yards and two touchdowns, with scoring plays thrown to Allen Hurns and Stacy Coley.

The running game was unspectacular however, with Dallas Crawford finishing with only 10 attempts for 37 yards and a score. Gus Edwards added seven attempts for 13 yards.

For the second straight week though, Miami's defense let them down. The Hurricanes gave up 549 total yards and allowed Virginia Tech to hit 8-of-14 third downs. Simply put, giving up 40+ points in consecutive games isn't going to cut it.

It's now been a run of four games in which the Hurricanes have failed to cover against the spread. Streaks have to come to an end eventually, but it's going to be mighty tough against a motivated Duke team that's really playing good football at the moment.

Duke Blue Devils

Few teams are hotter than the Blue Devils. They've won five games in a row while covering the spread in four of those victories.

After beating Virginia 35-22 and Virginia Tech 13-10, both on the road, Duke took care of business at home against NC State, winning 38-20 to cover as 10.5-point favorites.

With Anthony Boone really struggling to get anything going – he was 13-of-21 for 139 yards and three interceptions – Brandon Connette had to come in and save the day. He led a scoring drive late in the fourth and then it was DeVon Edwards' time to shine.

Edwards had returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown earlier in the game, but he wasn't going to stop there. He added back-to-back interception returns for scores to put the rubber stamp on the matter and give Duke the victory.

With three winnable games remaining, Duke could set themselves up for entry into a top bowl. A lot can still go wrong though, so David Cutliffe has to keep his boys focused on the task at hand.

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College Football Pick

Last year's meeting was as exciting as they come, with Miami emerging as a 52-45 victor. The Hurricanes have some bad memories about Jamison Crowder, who caught eight passes for 203 yards and two scores. Look for Crowder to make an impact again in this one.

This is a very evenly matched game, with two balanced teams who have identical records.

It remains to be seen who takes a majority of snaps at quarterback for Duke, but both Boone and Connette have shown they can carry the responsibility. Regardless of who takes over, we think Duke is worth a small wager as they look to extend their winning streak to an impressive six games.

For our upset college football pick of the week, we're going with the Blue Devils at home.

College Pick: Duke Blue Devils +3 and ML +145

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