Double Rushers & The 200 Club - College Football Betting Angles You Must Know

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 29, 2016 6:44 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 6:44 PM UTC

Being a sharp booker demands streets smarts but also some book smarts as well, our betting expert Joe Gavazzi gives an angle that every serious bettor must keep in mind if they want to truly make some money.


There is little doubt that we are a long way from the CFB landscape of the 1960’s and ‘70s which dominated by 3 yards and a cloud of dust. For starters, the high-tech era has authored in synthetic turf for many of the fields in America.  More importantly, for our purposes, is that the airways have become filled with flying footballs. As the philosophy of predominantly running the football has given way to the overhead game, the sport has opened up dramatically with scores skyrocketing every Saturday afternoon and evening.  It is now commonplace to see O/U numbers in the 70s and even 80s. No longer are we surprised when a CFB game has more than 100 points scored in it!  


The Big 10 retains much of its ground-oriented profile. Certainly much more so than any other conference! And, there are teams such as UConn in the AAC, who have a Stone Age offense that attracts little interest for either the fans or the bettors. As the numbers will point out below, maybe it is a good thing to control the football overland or to at least balance your offense.  

At the other end of the spectrum are high-scoring, pass-oriented leagues, like the Big 12, CUSA and the PAC 12. More often than not are fans treated to an aerial show with excitement from the starting to the final whistle!  As the numbers point out below, however, that does not necessarily lead to ATS success.  

At the start of this millennium, I began to track two sets of numbers in hopes of proving my hypotheses that from an offensive point of view, it was still important to do 2 things: first, dominate the line of scrimmage and secondly, balance your offense making it more difficult for the opposing defense to defend. Following is the premise of each of those theories and the ensuing success they have delivered.


Since 2000, it is a 74% ATS proposition in any CFB game, when one opponent has twice the amount of running yards than the other.  Check out last week’s stats for yourself. There were 26 games on the card, in which one opponent double rushed their adversary. That team’s pointspread record was 20-6 ATS.Presuming you hold onto the football, rushing the ball effectively is still the greatest way to pointspread success. When you throw the ball, 3 things can happen, and two of them are not good!


Perhaps the No. “200” is not the optimum magical number for this statistical pointspread theory. But, it sure has held up well over the years. My hypothesis was that teams that balance their offense by successfully, BOTH RUNNING AND PASSING THE FOOTBALL, would have great success against an opponent who did not. Maybe I got lucky using the magic “200” number, but it certainly has played out over the years. Look at the stat recap from Week 4 of CFB results (September 26, 2016).  You will see that 21 teams ran AND passed for 200 or more yards while their opponent did not. The results of these games were 16-5 ATS, favoring the balanced-explosive team. Since the year 2000, it is a 75% ATS proposition to back any CFB team, who runs AND passes for 200 yards in any given game, if their opponent does not.  


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These are the two best ways to prosper from analyzing the OFFENSIVE statistical numbers in handicapping any college football game. They have led to numerous ATS winners in the past for this bureau, and I expect will lead to numerous more in the future.


The usual caveat applies to any Article that I author regarding a specific aspect of handicapping any sport. Though isolating one area of handicapping, in this case statistical, for any given game can point out the positive result, it is always important to include situational, technical and fundamental handicapping in your arsenal as well. Though I have focused on offense in this Article, always remember that having a team with a superior defense is of equal importance.  


As we continue to see, day after day, one of your greatest edges is putting every ½ point in your favor. Toward that end, I strongly advise using the valuable resource that is SBR to lead you to more than one sports book, which will offer you the ability to shop for the best number on the selection of your choice. Only when we, as sports bettors, use every available advantage, do we put ourselves in the best position to come out a winner each and every day.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

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