Dollar Bowl: Rockets Roll in Postseason Rematch

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Swinging Johnson

Sunday, December 10, 2017 5:30 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 10, 2017 5:30 PM UTC

Appalachian State and Toledo meet in a postseason rematch from last season on Saturday, December 23rd in Mobile, Alabama. Let's analyze this matchup and determine which side is poised to cash in our college football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Toledo -7 ½
Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Appalachian State (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. Toledo (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)
  • Toledo is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Toledo is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Toledo is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Appalachian State is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Appalachian State is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Appalachian State is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

Only three college quarterbacks in the nation threw at least 25 touchdown passes with fewer than eight interceptions this season and two of them will be playing in this game while the other is polishing his 2017 Heisman Trophy Award. Appalachian State and Toledo have thrived under their signal-callers this season with Taylor Lamb and Logan Woodside leading their respective offenses.

However, if we are getting down to the nitty-gritty, we see that the Rockets have the 20th ranked aerial attack in the nation, averaging nearly 292 yards per game while the Mountaineers' average 223 yards per game which ranks them 72nd. Both rushing games are impressive with Toledo and Appalachian State averaging 218 and 215 yards per game respectively. Toledo also has the edge in points scored, averaging 39 PPG while Appy State averages 33.6.

So we have two potent offenses but certainly the Rockets have the edge in virtually all of the offensive categories. Toledo has also played a more competitive schedule coming out of the MAC versus the lightly regarded Sun Belt Conference where Appalachian State went 7-1 in conference play but 1-3 straight up and against the spread in non-con games.

The college football odds may seem a bit steep on Toledo when you consider that both have prolific offenses and decent defenses. Yet there are a few things going for Toledo and one of them is Logan Woodside. The Toledo quarterback is one of the most unheralded quarterbacks in the nation and had he played for an SEC or Big Ten school, it could very well be Woodside and not Baker Mayfield cradling that Heisman this morning. Yes, he is that good and is undoubtedly bent on revenge after last season's 31-28 loss to this very same Appalachian State squad in the Camellia Bowl.

I don't believe Appalachian State will be able to keep pace with the Rockets, as the Mountaineers will be forced to abandon their running game when they fall behind early on in this one. That will make them a predictable one-dimensional offense and Toledo's defensive front and secondary will be able to focus solely on Taylor Lamb and his targets. Look for a double-digit win by Toledo and include the Rockets in your college football picks.

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