Determining Best Bet for Florida vs. Florida State Football

SBR Staff

Thursday, November 27, 2014 1:23 PM GMT

Four experienced College Football handicappers share their predictions and betting analysis for Florida vs. Florida State. Take advantage of their free advice before betting on this rivalry match. 

Handicapper Matt Jordan:
Florida will keep it close for three quarters or so but FSU will pull away a bit at the end -- sound familiar Seminoles fans? -- and win by 10.

ATS
It's the finale for Gators coach Will Muschamp with UF hoping to have his replacement by Christmas. He won't coach UF's bowl game. Expect his players to give maximum effort for a coach they like. Florida has played better of late in winning three of four. The Gators would love nothing more than to end FSU's national title hopes. Florida State keeps playing with fire but brings in a national-best 27-game winning streak. Oddsmakers don't trust the Noles too much as they are just 7.5-point favorites. 

Total
Opening total of 52. If there's one thing that the Gators can do it's play defense. They totally dominated Missouri defensively but lost because of so many turnovers. Florida also shut down Georgia. Add in the motivation of playing hard for Muschamp? The under is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings. Not sure UF can score much, so place your College Football pick on the 'under.'

Free College Football Pick: FSU -7.5 & Under 53

 

Handicapper Ross Benjamin:
Any home favorite of 3.5 to 10.0, playing in game 7 of the season or beyond, that's gone under the total in a 1 or more games in a row, and both teams in the game have a +10.0 or better point per game differential, has gone 40-14 ATS (74.1%) since 1992. Play on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over the Florida Gators.

Any team (Florida State) with a total of 49.5 to 56.0, playing in game 7 of the season or beyond, and both teams in the contest average outgaining their opponents by 50 to 100-yards per game, has seen 34 of those 40-games (85%) stay under the total during the past 5-seasons. Play on Florida and Florida State to go under the total.

ATS
The Florida Gators head into their season finale versus their undefeated in state rival with an unimpressive by their standards 6-4 record. They will also be playing with a lame duck head coach in Will Muschamp who won't return next year after enduring an unsuccessful tenure in Gainesville. They will be out to avenge a 37-7 home loss to the Seminoles last season. The Gators have actually fared much better on the road this season than at home, going 3-1 SU&ATS and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.

Florida State is certainly not piling up style points in recent games, but at the end of the day they're 11-0, and are winners of 26 consecutive games.The Seminoles have seen 3 of their last 5-wins come by 4-points or less, and despite their undefeated record have gone 3-8 ATS on the year.

Total
You may be surprised to know that the Florida Gators have gone over the total in 8 of their 10-games this season. I say surprised because this is a team that averages a mere 103-yards per game passing, and they're allowing just 20.9 points per game.

As unexpected as we find the Florida Gators total results in the 2014 season, the same can be said about the Florida State Seminoles. Despite their explosive offensive attack, they've gone under the total in the last 3, and 6 of their last 9-games. That teeters on being shocking considering they average 35.5 points per game, and allows opponents an average of 379-yards of total offense per outing.

Free College Football Pick: FSU -7.5 & Under 53 at 5Dimes

 

Handicapper Jeff Grant:
Florida State leads the ACC in red zone offense, which fits nicely with the unit also ranking first in averaging 314.9 passing yards per game.  Look for a high-scoring affair in Tallahassee.  

Total
The Seminoles will be facing their eighth opponent this season ranked among the nation’s top-40 units defensively, but they’ve still managed to outperform each team’s yards per game allowed average. Sports bettors will be interested in playing the UNDER, as eight of the last 10 meetings in this Sunshine State rivalry have gone below the number.

Free College Football Pick: Over

 

Handicapper Dave Lawrence:
Florida State nearly lost to Boston College last week. They've nearly lost several times this year. Hard to lay more than a touchdown with them in this situation. Under is probably the best play but I also like the Gators with the points.

ATS
At this point, we've learned about Florida State, right? Don't lay huge numbers...they play bad first halves...they still find ways to win. The Seminoles could lose this game outright, to be honest with you, so I'd avoid them on the spread completely. The Gators should be fired up in this one - especially if they like their head coach Will Muschamp, who is resigning at the end of the season.

Total
Under is what I'll be looking at here. The only way Florida wins is if they pound the football. On the flip side, Florida State's offense will be going up against an SEC defense. This game should be low scoring and ugly.

Free College Football Pick: Florida +7.5 & Under

Learn more about the Florida/Florida State Rivalry History here