Desperation & Stellar Run Defense Make Georgia +3 the College Football Pick vs. Florida

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, October 28, 2015 10:11 PM GMT

Our handicapper thoroughly examines Saturday’s game between Georgia and Florida. Join us in reading this compelling betting preview article that concludes with his college football pick.

“The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party”
The #11 Florida Gators (6-1) are set to take on their fiercest SEC rival when they square off against the Georgia Bulldogs (5-2) on Saturday. This rivalry game will once again take place at its customary neutral site in Jacksonville, Florida, and the opening kickoff is slated for 3:30 PM ET. The annual event in Jacksonville has been affectionately labeled as “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.” Obviously that title speaks for itself, and requires no further explanation. Getting back to the actual game, current college football odds at Bovada have Florida listed as a 3-point favorite. Georgia will be out to atone for last season’s humiliating 38-20 loss as an 11-point favorite to a then mediocre at best Gators squad.

 

Huge SEC East Implications
Besides the bragging rights that comes with winning this game, this year’s contest has some major ramifications in regards to who’ll eventually win the SEC East. Heading into this week, Florida sits atop the division at 4-1, and Georgia is within dangerous striking distance at 3-2. The Gators would clinch the SEC East with a win on Saturday. Contrarily, a Georgia win would place them in a tie with Florida, and they would technically lead the division by virtue of the head to head tiebreaker. Obviously Georgia is in a more urgent and desperate situation regarding their SEC title hopes. If the Bulldogs were fortunate enough to come away with a win, they would then only need to knock off Kentucky (4-3) and Auburn (4-3) in order to play in the conference championship game. Those two teams have combined to go a less than impressive 3-6 in SEC play this year.

 

Keys to the Game
After studying this matchup carefully, I’ve come to this conclusion. Florida has pretty much struggled to run the ball with any consistency all season. They’ve been able to mask that deficiency with an outstanding defense and a stellar +9 turnover differential. They’ll need to establish some semblance of a running game against Georgia if they hope to come out on top. They’ll certainly have their work cut out for them in that regard. The Bulldogs run defense is allowing just 121 yards per game, and opponents are averaging just 3.3 yards per rushing attempt. Florida had just 55 yards rushing and averaged a meager 1.8 yards per attempt in their loss two weeks ago at LSU. I like Georgia’s chances of shutting down Florida’s already inept rushing attack.

 

College Football ATS Betting Angle
Any team (Georgia) who’s defense is allowing 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, versus a conference opponent (Florida) that has an offense averaging only 3.0 to 3.5 yards per rushing attempt, resulted in that team going 56-10 (84.9%) straight up during the past five seasons, and they had a sizable +16.2 point per game differential. This super betting angle just nudged me further toward an underdog I had already taken a liking to, and one of my college football picks this week will reflect that notion.

College Football Picks: Take Georgia +3 at Bovada

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