David Kaplan's Football Picks: Can Kapman Go 5-0 Again?

Thursday, September 27, 2018 4:47 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 27, 2018 4:47 PM UTC

Chicago sports radio & TV legend David Kaplan has joined Sportsbook Review and was a perfect 5-0 on his football picks last week! Here are Uncle Kappy's Fab Five for NCAA Week 5 & NFL Week 4.

Kapman's season ATS record: 10-5

Well, last weekend was one of those rare times when whatever I touched turned to gold. My best play of the weekend was on UMass, who easily covered the 7.5-point spread in a comfortable win over Charlotte. That was a game that I didn't originally have circled, but a lot of research showed me a very attractive wagering opportunity. That research included reading message boards about both teams that tipped me off to injuries and state of mind around the teams that showed me a clear advantage for Massachusetts.

Then, Texas who was getting 3 points as a home underdog, won outright over rival TCU. Why did I like that game? Well, TCU was coming off of an emotionally draining loss to Ohio State and then they had to travel to Austin to play in front of a hostile crowd against a team looking for a signature victory over a name opponent. The Horns got that easily.

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Texas WR Collin Johnson went FLYING for the TD catch!

The Longhorns took down No. 17 TCU! pic.twitter.com/5b1EAZADyw

— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) September 23, 2018
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In the NFL, I read all week that the Ravens were a hot team and that coming home they were looking to make a statement against the Broncos. After a lot of studying of both teams I felt good about laying 5 points, and the Ravens were an easy winner. New Orleans was off to a slow start and they needed a win over division-rival Atlanta. Studying the New Orleans media I read that the Saints were going to put the ball in Drew Brees' hands more than they had in the first two weeks and that they believed they had a chance to score a lot against the Falcons. Good enough for me as I took the 3 points and the Saints covered winning the game outright in overtime.

Finally, I liked the Washington Redskins to beat a banged-up Green Bay Packers club that was trying to win on the road with their best player, quarterback Aaron Rodgers severely hampered by a knee injury. Green Bay struggles to run the ball consistently, so I believed that to win they had to score by passing and I believed Washington would score a lot more than they had especially against a subpar GB defense.

I also gave out the Cleveland Browns on the money line as they cashed a ticket for us with their first win in nearly two seasons by rallying past the Jets.

Ok, so here we go for this week:

California +3 vs. Oregon

Oregon lost a really tough game at home to Stanford last weekend, and after blowing a late 10-point lead they now have to travel to play a talented California team. Oregon won the statistical battle against Stanford, outgaining the Cardinal 524-398- but they turned the ball over 3 times while Stanford did not turn the ball over. That was the difference in the overtime loss. That loss was extremely deflating to the Ducks and that sets up this question: Can they crank it back up on the road and beat Cal? I don’t believe so, and I am picking Cal to win this game outright. I will take the points.

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Ducks are 7-1 against Cal in their last eight games. Who ya got this week? #TuesdayTrivia #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/2KrqiOkpM6

— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) September 25, 2018
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Southern Mississippi +27 at Auburn

Southern Miss can score through the air, and I am not convinced that Auburn’s pass defense is good enough to keep the Eagles from scoring enough to cover this huge spread. Auburn is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after a win. Yes, Auburn is the better team, but I will take the points with Southern Miss.

Toledo +8.5 at Fresno State

Toledo is an offensive powerhouse, putting up 63 points a week ago in a win over Nevada and I don’t see them struggling to score this week against a talented Fresno State team that bounced back with a win at UCLA after dropping a tough low-scoring contest at Minnesota and is now coming off a week off. Toledo is getting enough offensive productivity that gives me confidence they will cover the number if not win the game outright.

Boston College -13.5 vs. Temple

Boston College lost convincingly to a Purdue team that was much better than their 0-3 record indicated, and they struggled to slow down Purdue’s fast-paced offense. This week they play a talented but much slower-paced team in Temple, and I expect the Eagles to bounce back with a very solid performance on both sides of the ball. Take the home team Eagles to cover the large spread.

Chicago Bears -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The 2-1 Bears are off to a solid start, and their defense led by All-Pro Khalil Mack is among the NFL’s best. They get after the quarterback as well as any team in the league and lead the the NFL in sacks, which tells me that they will put a ton of pressure on the immobile Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, he is off to a great start throwing the football, but I don’t believe he will have as much time to go through his progressions as he has over the past three weeks, and I believe he will have a tough day (on a short week). I also believe that Mitchell Trubisky will have more success throwing the football against a subpar Tampa Bay defense, and if Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen can run the ball well enough to bring balance to the Bears' offense I see Chicago winning comfortably. Lay the 3 points.

Bonus Play: Atlanta Falcons -5 over Cincinnati Bengals

Kaplan hosts a daily radio show in Chicago on ESPN 1000 (WMVP-AM) from 9 a.m. to noon local time and a daily TV show on NBC Sports Chicago at 6 p.m. He hosts Cubs pregame and postgame shows on the same network. He’s a college basketball TV analyst for the Atlantic 10, the Missouri Valley Conference and the Horizon League. And he wrote a book on the Cubs’ rebuild & championship.

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