Dangerous Dogs for Your Week 6 College Football Picks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, October 1, 2014 3:58 PM GMT

Rivalries in the Beehive State and the ACC Atlantic Division look like they provide two pretty decent Underdog picks to bet on as October’s first weekend’s slate of games hope to yield gamblers a profit.

Utah State vs. BYU Friday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/WatchESPN)
Aggies Will Look to Slow Down #18 Cougars High-Powered Offense
Last year in the battle for the Old Wagon Wheel, BYU broke away from a mid-first quarter 7-7 tie and outscored Utah State 24-0 into the fourth quarter en route to a 31-14 win as 5½-point favorites in Logan, Utah. Here, at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo this year, oddsmakers have made the Cougars robust 21-point favorites (Pinnacle) and although BYU (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) is ranked #18 and is averaging a gaudy 37.5 points per game, and BYU is 23-2 L25 SU against the Aggies, Utah State (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) is not the same Utah State from 10 years ago and can and should put up a fight here in this nationally televised (ESPN) rivalry game in the Beehive State on Friday night.

One dilemma for Utah State and potential Aggies bettors here is the health of starting QB Chuckie Keeton (knee) is was listed as Questionable on Tuesday. Should Keeton (428 passing yards, 2 TDs)—who tore his ACL, ending his season in this game against BYU last year—be unable to start or get injured in this game, backup QB Darell Garretson (389 passing yards, 3 TDs) is a very willing and able replacement. And in terms of offensive weapons for either QB, Utah State (9-5 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2013) has RB JoJo Natson (20 rushes, 172 yards, TD, 8.6 ypc) and WR Hunter Sharp (23 receptions, 305 yards, 2 TDs, 13.2 ypc), so the visiting Aggies should be able to score between 17-24 points of their own, and, with the 21 points the now-Mountain West Conference representative is getting, Underdog Utah State (+900 Moneyline, Bwin; BYU -1600) looks like the pick, despite the fact they haven’t won here since 1978. And some of the relevant recent trends back taking the Aggies including their 6-2 ATS over the L8 in this series—5-1 ATS in the last L6—and Utah State has a 3-0 ATS record in their L3 Away at Provo against the Cougars and has won two of its last three meetings with ranked teams. And the gritty Aggies are also 9-0 as Underdogs 5> points (19-3-1 as Underdogs 4> points). If the line moves to 21½—or it’s still at +21 and you’re the type of punter to buy the ½ point and pay the -120 juice—it could end up being very wise as the final score here could very well end up being 38-17 or 34-13.

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North Carolina State vs. Clemson Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN) 
Wolfpack Looking to Provide Another Underdog Winner at Clemson
 (ESPNU, +15, bet365/Bwin), This ACC Atlantic Coast division game between host Clemson (1-1 ACC) and NC State (0-1 ACC) at Clemson Memorial Stadium, Clemson, South Carolina gives us a chance again to back the Wolfpack (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, W3 straight ATS) in this space against highly regarded and #25 in ESPN’s Power Rankings Clemson (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS). Oddsmakers have made NC State (+475 on the Moneyline, Paddy Power; Clemson -700) over two-TD Underdogs here (-15, Mirage) and that just seems like too many points against a quality Wolfpack team which averages 40.4 points of their own and should have revenge on their minds after yielding a school-record 754 yards—while scoring the most points in a loss in team history in a 62-48 loss in 2012 here at Clemson in a game where both sides actually blew double-digit leads.

NC State QB Jacoby Brissett (1,364 passing yards, 13 TDs) is a talented field general while RBs Shadrick Thornton (60 rushes, 368 yards, 7 TDs) and Matt Dayes (7 TDs) have led the underrated Wolfpack to the 26th best rushing attack in nation, averaging 231.2 yards per game. Clemson is a very strong team though with freshman QB Deshaun Watson (56 completions, 914 yards, 10 TDs) and the Tigers two losses are to #1 FSU (23-17 in OT) and #12 Georgia (45-21). Besides NC State being a pretty talented team with revenge on its mind and its backers getting 15 points, some trends also support the visiting Wolfpack here including a 4-0 ATS mark in their L4 against the Tigers—laying points all four times—as well as goingt 4-0 ATS L4 here at Clemson Memorial Stadium. Another very notable trend: The Underdog is 12-5 in the L17 in this series, so, the best College Football pick here is NC State +15 or more if you can shop around and find it.

College Football Picks: Utah State +21 (Pinnacle), NC State +15 (Bwin, Mirage)

More NCAAF Picks Worth a Look: North Carolina +2 (vs. Virginia Tech), Utah +13 (at UCLA) (Pinnacle)

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