Dabo & Jimbo Renew Rivalry in Clemson-Texas A&M Marquee Matchup

Tuesday, September 4, 2018 11:34 AM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 4, 2018 11:34 AM UTC

The Clemson Tigers and the Texas A&M Aggies both looked good in Week 1 – but this Saturday, only one of these teams can beat the college football odds in College Station.

<p style="text-align:right"><strong><em>Jason’s </em><em>2018-19 </em><em>NCAAF picks record: 1-1 ATS (0.00 units), 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units)</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/clemson-tigers-vs-texas-a&amp;m-aggies-3448180/odds/" rel="nofollow">Game of Week: No. 2 Clemson at Texas A&amp;M</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, College Station (ESPN)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Aggies</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448180, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,238,1275,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Life continues apace for the Clemson Tigers. They looked like title contenders again in Week 1, crushing the Furman Paladins 48-7; alas, that wasn’t enough to cover the 50-point spread at home. 50 points! Maybe the betting market should give the FCS a little more respect. Or not; the Texas A&amp;M Aggies rolled the Northwestern State Demons 59-7 as 46.5-point home faves on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/">NCAAF odds board</a>. How about picking on somebody your own size?<br /><br />Like each other, for instance. The Aggies host Clemson this Saturday night in a marquee matchup on the Worldwide Leader, and at press time, its the Tigers laying 13 points, up from 11 at the open. Let’s crack open this bad boy and see if that 2-point line move gives us more value for our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/">college football picks</a> – or takes it away.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Does Not Compute</strong></h2><p>As always, we start with the projections, lovingly hand-crafted by nerds who know their football. ESPN’s Football Power Index has Clemson coming out ahead 68.5 percent of the time; that’s –217 according to the indefatigable <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/">SBR Odds Converter</a>, and –217 is the same as a point spread of around –6.5 according to Wizard of Odds.<br /><br />Huh. We would have guessed the Aggies were the value pick, being the underdog and all, but that gap between the projections and the college football odds is big enough to fit seven Travis Etiennes. Maybe all those points A&amp;M racked up against Northwestern State caused the computers to melt. That can happen after all those Week 1 cupcake games. Mmmmmmm ... cupcakes.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Texas A&amp;amp;M put up 758 (!!!) yards of offense in Jimbo Fisher’s debut as head coach.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;That’s the second-most yards *ever* put up by an A&amp;amp;M team.&lt;/p&gt;— TexAgs (@TexAgs) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TexAgs/status/1035380916468817926?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;August 31, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Jimbo vs. Dabo</strong></h2><p>Or maybe the betting public is just slow to realize that Jimbo Fisher is running the show now in College Station. The Aggies opened up their wallets and/or purses last December and signed Fisher to a ginormous 10-year, $75-million contract, luring him away from the Florida State Seminoles, whom he led to the National Championship in 2012-13. College football is very much a coaches’ sport, and Fisher has delivered the goods before.</p><p>To be fair, Kevin Sumlin (now with the Arizona Wildcats) left the Aggies with plenty of talent on the hoof. It might take a couple of years to put the Jimbo touch on this squad, but there aren’t very many weak spots on the roster, so don’t be surprised if TAMU takes it to the bank early and often this year. As for Clemson, three years of exposure in the College Football Playoff (including one championship) may have squeezed every last drop of betting value out of the Tigers. Let’s look at their SU and ATS records for their last five years under head coach Dabo Swinney:</p><ul> <li><strong>2013-14: </strong>11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS</li> <li><strong>2014-15: </strong>10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS</li> <li><strong>2015-16: </strong>14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS</li> <li><strong>2016-17: </strong>14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS</li> <li><strong>2017-18: </strong>12-2 SU, 8-5-1 ATS</li></ul><p><br />M’eh? The Tigers had some extra juice last year with QB Kelly Bryant capably taking over for the departed Deshaun Watson (now with the Houston Texans). This year, freshman Trevor Lawrence may do the same to Bryant, as the senior incumbent shares snaps with his eventual replacement. But we’ll go ahead and throw a few pfennigs at Texas A&amp;M this week. Get ‘em before the public catches on, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.</p>
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